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Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap

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  • Julia Bersch
  • Tara M. Sinclair

Abstract

This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    2. Julia Bersch & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. Yasuhisa Ojima, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster," IMF Working Papers 2012/192, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bataa, Erdenebat, 2012. "Macroeconomic risks of Mongolia and ways to mitigate them," MPRA Paper 72386, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2013.

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