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Tara M. Sinclair

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Links for 05-29-2013
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2013-05-29 05:03:00

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography of Economics:
  1. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Employment and Work
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > Statistical Modelling
  2. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," FHFA Staff Working Papers 20-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.

    Mentioned in:

    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Employment and Work
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > Statistical Modelling

Working papers

  1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Yannic Stucki, 2022. "Measuring Swiss employment growth: a measurement-error approach," Working Papers 2022-11, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2025. "Data-Driven Learning About Trend Productivity Growth," CIRANO Working Papers 2025s-29, CIRANO.

  2. Pawel Adrjan & Gabriele Ciminelli & Alexandre Judes & Michael Koelle & Cyrille Schwellnus & Tara Sinclair, 2021. "Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data," OECD Productivity Working Papers 30, OECD Publishing.

    Cited by:

    1. Oikonomou, Myrto & Pierri, Nicola & Timmer, Yannick, 2023. "IT shields: Technology adoption and economic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Deole, Sumit S. & Deter, Max & Huang, Yue, 2023. "Home sweet home: Working from home and employee performance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Magaña, Diego, 2023. "Diferencias de género en el bienestar de los adultos en el Reino Unido (2014-15) [Gender Differences in Adult Wellbeing in the United Kingdom (2014-15)]," MPRA Paper 118560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Martijn Stroom & Piet Eichholtz & Nils Kok, 2024. "Does working from home work? That depends on the home," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(8), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen Hansen & Peter Lambert & Raffaella Sadun & Bledi Taska, 2023. "Remote work across jobs, companies and space," POID Working Papers 067, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Eiichi TOMIURA & Banri ITO, 2022. "Impacts of Globalization on the Adoption of Remote Work: Evidence from a survey in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion papers 22052, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Shibata, Ippei, 2023. "Has COVID-19 induced labor market mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

  3. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers 2020-63, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Willem Thorbecke, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Berger, Tino & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Nowcasting the output gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 18-34.
      • Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the Output Gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Gagan Deep Sharma & Sascha Kraus & Amogh Talan & Mrinalini Srivastava & Christina Theodoraki, 2024. "Navigating the storm: the SME way of tackling the pandemic crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 221-241, June.
    5. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
    6. Costa, Eduardo André & Silva, Maria Eduarda & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2024. "Real-time nowcasting the monthly unemployment rates with daily Google Trends data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Daniel Borup & David E. Rapach & Erik Christian Montes Schütte, 2021. "Now- and Backcasting Initial Claims with High-Dimensional Daily Internet Search-Volume Data," CREATES Research Papers 2021-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Dergiades, Theologos & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Fosten, Jack & Nandi, Shaoni, 2025. "Nowcasting U.S. state-level CO2 emissions and energy consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 20-30.
    12. Gagan Deep Sharma & Sascha Kraus & Amogh Talan & Mrinalini Srivastava & Christina Theodoraki, 2023. "Navigating the storm: the SME way of tackling the pandemic crisis," Post-Print hal-04676728, HAL.
    13. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Lin William Cong & Ke Tang & Bing Wang & Jingyuan Wang, 2021. "An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States," Papers 2109.10009, arXiv.org.
    15. Liu, Laura & Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Schorfheide, Frank, 2021. "Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 2-22.
    16. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    17. Anton I. Votinov & Julia A. Polshchikova & Karen A. Nersisyan, 2025. "Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 62-73, February.
    18. Borup, Daniel & Rapach, David E. & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2023. "Mixed-frequency machine learning: Nowcasting and backcasting weekly initial claims with daily internet search volume data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1122-1144.

  4. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021. "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers 11284, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    3. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm level expectations and macroeconomic conditions underpinnings and disagreement," Working Papers 11058, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    5. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2025. "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," Working Papers 2025-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

  5. Tara Sinclair & Martha Gimbel, 2020. "Mismatch in Online Job Search," Working Papers 2020-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Bellatin, Alejandra & Galassi, Gabriela, 2022. "What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 15209, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "Determinants of the Choice of Job Search Channels by the Unemployed Using a Multivariate Probit Model," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 369-420, November.

  6. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

  7. Jacob T. Jones & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2018. "A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised May 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Müller, Karsten, 2020. "German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Working Papers 23, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Rambaccussing, Dooruj & Kwiatkowski, Andrzej, 2020. "Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1501-1516.
    3. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
    5. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    6. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.
    7. Foltas, Alexander, 2023. "Quantifying priorities in business cycle reports: Analysis of recurring textual patterns around peaks and troughs," Working Papers 44, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    8. Nélida Díaz Sobrino & Corinna Ghirelli & Samuel Hurtado & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2020. "The narrative about the economy as a shadow forecast: an analysis using Banco de España quarterly reports," Working Papers 2042, Banco de España.
    9. Sharpe, Steven A. & Sinha, Nitish R. & Hollrah, Christopher A., 2023. "The power of narrative sentiment in economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1097-1121.
    10. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2020. "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  8. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2018. "Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 2018-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Yiyang Sun & Guolin Hou, 2021. "Analysis on the Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Spatial Network Structure of Tourism Eco-Efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2020. "Wage Setting and Unemployment: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 503, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Lin, 2022. "Female small business owners in China: Discouraged, not discriminated," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Lu, Lan & Yin, Shuiying & Wen, Fuying & Xu, Qingqing, 2023. "The spatial structure of labour force employment in China’s industries: Measurement and extraction," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 472-486.
    5. Jong, Meng-Chang & Hong, Puah & Arip, Mohammad Affendy, 2020. "Modelling Tourism Demand: An Augmented Gravity Model," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(2), pages 105-112.
    6. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballe & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in a Depression," DEOS Working Papers 2224, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    7. Faryna, Oleksandr & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tsapin, Andriy, 2022. "Wage and unemployment: Evidence from online job vacancy data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 52-70.
    8. Anthony Amoah & Carlos Tetteh & Kofi Korle & Samuel Howard Quartey, 2022. "Human Development and Net Migration: the Ghanaian Experience," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1147-1172, September.
    9. Byrne, Stephen & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2019. "Employment Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 122-148, July.
    10. Mohammad Azeem Khan & Zeenat Fatima & Sumbul Fatima, 2023. "Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(2), pages 329-349, May.

  9. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2016-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    2. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Same, but different? Testing monetary policy shock measures," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 184.
    3. Kshitiz Mishra & Partha Chatterjee, 2021. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting Analysis of Indian Economy," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 471-491, September.
    4. Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks and Their Competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2018-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016. "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers 809, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Eleni Argiri & Stephen G. Hall & Angeliki Momtsia & Daphne Marina Papadopoulou & Ifigeneia Skotida & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2024. "An evaluation of the inflation forecasting performance of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 932-947, July.
    7. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2018. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Greenbook," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 955, Boston College Department of Economics.

  10. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2016. "Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States," Working Papers 2016-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabo, B., 2017. "Towards an understanding of job matching using web data," Other publications TiSEM b8b877f2-ae6a-495f-b6cc-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Arthur Turrell & Bradley J. Speigner & Jyldyz Djumalieva & David Copple & James Thurgood, 2019. "Transforming Naturally Occurring Text Data Into Economic Statistics: The Case of Online Job Vacancy Postings," NBER Working Papers 25837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions:," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

  11. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average," Working Papers 2015-006, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi, 2023. "How to Deal With Missing Observations in Surveys of Professional Forecasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 10203, CESifo.
    2. Fernando Faure & Carlos A. Medel, 2020. "Does the Exposure to the Business Cycle Improve Consumer Perceptions for Forecasting? Microdata Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 888, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Qian, Yilin & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L, 2022. "Global combinations of expert forecasts," Working Papers BAWP-2022-02, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2019. "Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1679-1691.
    5. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    6. Ryan Thompson & Yilin Qian & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2022. "Flexible global forecast combinations," Papers 2207.07318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    7. Yongchen Zhao, 2021. "The robustness of forecast combination in unstable environments: a Monte Carlo study of advanced algorithms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 173-199, July.
    8. Tim Köhler & Jörg Döpke, 2023. "Will the last be the first? Ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 797-832, February.

  12. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law," Working Papers (Old Series) 1523, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    2. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2017. "Self-employment and Okun’s Law relationship: the Spanish case," MPRA Paper 83292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Louail Bilal & Ben Haj Hamida Hayet, 2021. "Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017," Management, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Porras, María Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2022. "The heterogeneity of Okun’s law: A metaregression analysis," MPRA Paper 112442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Roberto Bande & Ángel Martín-Román, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    6. Kavese, Kambale & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "A provincial perspective of nonlinear Okun's law for emerging markets: The case of South Africa," MPRA Paper 86517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Eiji Goto & Constantin Bürgi, 2020. "Sectoral Okun's Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 8101, CESifo.
    8. Diellza Kukaj, 2018. "Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Balkans," European Journal of Marketing and Economics Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, ejme_v1_i.
    9. Lutho Mbekeni & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "South African unemployment in the post-financial crisis era: What are the determinants?," Working Papers 1903, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised May 2019.
    10. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder-Plassmann & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2016. "The State Level Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 793, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    11. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2020. "Formal and statistical aspects of estimating Okun's law at a regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1113-1136, August.
    12. Pitoňáková, Renáta & Kucharčík, Rudolf & Kabát, Ladislav, 2025. "Is the response of the Slovak labor market asymmetric to output changes?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2021. "Asymmetry in Okun’s Law Revisited: New evidence on cyclical unemployment–cyclical output trade-off in the Free State Province using NARDL model," MPRA Paper 107126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mutascu, Mihai & Sokic, Alexandre, 2021. "Okun's law in the US: New insights in time and frequency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    15. Andrew Keinsley & Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju, 2021. "The Nonlinear Unemployment-Inflation Relationship and the Factors That Define It," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 354-377, June.
    16. Chipeta Chama & Meyer Daniel Francois & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2017. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 20-41, August.
    17. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Arabinda Basistha & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2017. "The role of spatial GDP spillovers in state-level Okun’s law," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 353-360, October.
    19. Ondřej Dvouletý & Alisa Gordievskaya & David Anthony Procházka, 2018. "Investigating the relationship between entrepreneurship and regional development: case of developing countries," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    21. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2020. "Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, November.
    22. Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Impacto de la política de empleo juvenil en la disminución del desempleo en los países de la Unión Europea, período 2002-2017 [Impact of youth employment policy on the reduction of unemployment in ," MPRA Paper 111026, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Aug 2021.
    23. Zambrano-Monserrate, Manuel A., 2024. "Labor dynamics and unions: An empirical analysis through Okun's Law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 613-628.
    24. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.

  13. Hans Christian Muller-Droge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition," CAMA Working Papers 2014-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Dovern & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Working Papers 200, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
    3. Ulrich Fritsche & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Vergleichende Evaluation der Konjunkturprognosen des Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung an der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung für den Zeitraum 2005-2014," IMK Studies 54-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
    5. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.

  14. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Enders, Walter & Li, Jing, 2015. "Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 71-81.
    2. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

  15. Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
    2. Lixiong Yang, 2022. "Threshold mixed data sampling (TMIDAS) regression models with an application to GDP forecast errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 533-551, February.
    3. Constantin Bürgi, 2020. "Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks," Working Papers 2020-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Sep 2020.
    4. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    5. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
    6. Pierre L Siklos, 2019. "US Monetary Policy Since the 1950s and the Changing Content of FOMC Minutes," CAMA Working Papers 2019-69, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2025. "The Bias of the ECB Inflation Projections: A State‐Dependent Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 922-940, April.
    8. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    9. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    12. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    13. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 817-833, August.
    14. Lixiong Yang, 2020. "State-dependent biases and the quality of China’s preliminary GDP announcements," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2663-2687, December.
    15. G. Kontogeorgos & K. Lambrias, 2022. "Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: The first 20 years," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 213-229, March.
    16. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    17. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    18. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    19. Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(3), September.
    20. Travis J. Berge, 2023. "Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
    21. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    22. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    23. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    24. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.

  16. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Yao & Ivanovski, Kris & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Human capital and energy consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Myers, Robert J. & Johnson, Stanley R. & Helmar, Michael & Baumes, Harry, 2018. "Long-run and short-run relationships between oil prices, producer prices, and consumer prices: What can we learn from a permanent-transitory decomposition?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 175-190.
    3. Giri, Federico, 2022. "The relationship between headline, core, and energy inflation: A wavelet investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Ferreira, Pedro Costa & Mattos, Daiane Marcolino de & Ardeo, Vagner Laerte, 2017. "Triple-Filter core inflation: a measure of the inflation trajectory," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(4), December.
    5. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  17. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Enders, Walter & Li, Jing, 2015. "Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 71-81.
    2. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

  18. William Barnett & Ki-Hong Choi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201234, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.

    Cited by:

    1. Barnett, William A. & Choi, Ki-Hong, 2006. "Operational identification of the complete class of superlative index numbers: an application of Galois theory," MPRA Paper 416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  19. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Kung, Ko-Lun & MacMinn, Richard D. & Kuo, Weiyu & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason, 2022. "Multi-population mortality modeling: When the data is too much and not enough," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 41-55.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    5. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Binder, Carola Conces & Wetzel, Samantha, 2018. "The FOMC versus the staff, revisited: When do policymakers add value?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 72-75.
    7. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    8. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.

  20. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Kim, Jong Min & Jun, Mina & Kim, Chung K., 2018. "The Effects of Culture on Consumers' Consumption and Generation of Online Reviews," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 134-150.
    3. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    7. Andrew B. Martinez & Neil R. Ericsson, 2025. "Improving empirical models and forecasts with saturation-based machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 346(1), pages 447-487, March.
    8. Döhrn, Roland, 2015. "Der Prognostiker des Jahres: Ein Zufallsergebnis? Möglichkeiten einer mehrdimensionalen Evaluierung von Konjunkturprognosen," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 208, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    9. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    10. Behrens, Christoph, 2019. "Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach," Working Papers 9, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    11. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
    12. Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
    13. An, Zidong & Ball, Laurence & Jalles, Joao & Loungani, Prakash, 2019. "Do IMF forecasts respect Okun’s law? Evidence for advanced and developing economies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1131-1142.
    14. Laurence M. Ball & João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2014/024, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Tim Köhler & Jörg Döpke, 2023. "Will the last be the first? Ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 797-832, February.
    16. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    18. Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    19. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.

  21. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Carsten A. Holz, 2014. "The Quality of China’s GDP Statistics," a/ Working Papers Series 1403, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    3. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    5. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    6. John G. Fernald & Eric Hsu & Mark M. Spiegel, 2015. "Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Working Paper Series 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

  22. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Manik L. Shrestha & Mr. Marco Marini, 2013. "Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/060, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2015. "Analysis of the Revisions to the Quarterly National Accounts Since the Introduction of Flash Estimates in 2005," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(2), pages 14-30, February.
    3. Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2014. "Revisionsanalyse der vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung seit Einführung der Schnellschätzung im Jahr 2005," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 87(10), pages 693-710, October.

  23. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.

    Cited by:

    1. Julia Bersch & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. Yasuhisa Ojima, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia: Understanding the Roller Coaster," IMF Working Papers 2012/192, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bataa, Erdenebat, 2012. "Macroeconomic risks of Mongolia and ways to mitigate them," MPRA Paper 72386, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2013.
    3. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

  24. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Dec 2011.

    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Ducoudré & Paul Hubert & Guilhem Tabarly, 2020. "The state-dependence of output revisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Jonas Dovern & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Working Papers 200, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Lixiong Yang, 2022. "Threshold mixed data sampling (TMIDAS) regression models with an application to GDP forecast errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 533-551, February.
    4. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    5. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Charalambos Christofides, 2018. "Forecasts in Times of Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/048, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021. "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers 11284, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    8. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    9. Danae Scherman Teitelboim, 2020. "Revisiones en cuentas nacionales trimestrales Chile 2006-2019," Economic Statistics Series 131, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2017. "Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 18(3), pages 133-154, July.
    11. Behrens, Christoph, 2019. "Evaluating the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts. A nonparametric multivariate approach," Working Papers 9, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    12. Ignacio Martínez, 2021. "Deepening GDP revision analysis: GDP bias breakdown and compositional change," Economic Statistics Series 136, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Lixiong Yang, 2020. "State-dependent biases and the quality of China’s preliminary GDP announcements," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2663-2687, December.
    14. Fosten, Jack & Nandi, Shaoni, 2025. "Nowcasting U.S. state-level CO2 emissions and energy consumption," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 20-30.
    15. Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
    16. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "Measurement error of global production," ISS Working Papers - General Series 632, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    17. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
    18. Funashima, Yoshito & Iizuka, Nobuo & Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro, 2020. "GDP announcements and stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    19. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    20. Eugen Scarlat, 2016. "Connectivity - Based Clustering of GDP Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 23-38, March.
    21. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
    22. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2025. "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," Working Papers 2025-004, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

  25. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Pym Manopimoke, 2012. "Hong Kong Inflation Dynamics: Trend and Cycle Relationships with the U.S. and China," Working Papers 232012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

  26. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Mar 2010.

    Cited by:

    1. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Central banks’ inflation forecasts under asymmetric loss: Evidence from four Latin-American countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-70.
    3. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Working Papers 2016-007, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    6. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2024. "Systemic bias of IMF reserve and debt forecasts for program countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 985-1001.
    7. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Charalambos Christofides, 2018. "Forecasts in Times of Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/048, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
    11. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1426, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2014.
    12. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    13. Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    14. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    15. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Estefania Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Kothari, Siddharth, 2021. "Worse Than You Think: Public Debt Forecast Errors in Advanced and Developing Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 16108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2025. "The Bias of the ECB Inflation Projections: A State‐Dependent Analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 922-940, April.
    17. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020. "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2020-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    18. Travis J. Berge & Andrew C. Chang & Nitish R. Sinha, 2019. "Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
    20. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.
    21. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
    22. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    23. Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 365-388, August.
    24. Fatemi, Ali & Fooladi, Iraj & Zhao, Yonggan & Ma, Zongming, 2024. "On the superior performance of SRI funds," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 567-581.
    25. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 817-833, August.
    26. Clintin P. Davis-Stober & David V. Budescu & Stephen B. Broomell & Jason Dana, 2015. "The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 130-143.
    27. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
    28. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    29. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    30. Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
    31. Bürgi, Constantin, 2017. "Bias, rationality and asymmetric loss functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 113-116.
    32. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
    33. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2018. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Greenbook," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 955, Boston College Department of Economics.
    34. Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
    35. Sharpe, Steven A. & Sinha, Nitish R. & Hollrah, Christopher A., 2023. "The power of narrative sentiment in economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1097-1121.
    36. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    37. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2017. "What's the Story? A New Perspective on the Value of Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    39. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    40. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
    41. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    42. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    43. Baghestani, Hamid & AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., 2017. "Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 47-56.
    44. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2020. "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Fildes, Robert, 2015. "Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 140-143.

  27. Tara M. Sinclair & Dennis W. Jensen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009. "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2009-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

  28. Tara Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid & Edward N. Gamber, 2009. "Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule," Working Papers 2008-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.

  29. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers 2008-010, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Charalambos Christofides, 2018. "Forecasts in Times of Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/048, International Monetary Fund.

  30. Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008. "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2008-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.

    Cited by:

    1. Marko Melolinna & Máté Tóth, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    2. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2015. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2019. "The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series 2019/08, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    5. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    7. Md. Saiful Islam & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2017. "Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) In Two SAARC Countries: Nepal and Pakistan," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    8. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 470, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    11. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    12. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Tian, Jing, 2016. "Forecasting output gaps in the G-7 countries: The role of correlated Innovations and structural breaks," Working Papers 2016-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    13. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3911, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical shocks and persistence of economic activity: evidence from a unique natural experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 143/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2017. "GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Raphaelle G. Coulombe & James McNeil, 2025. "The term structure of interest rates in a noisy information model," Working Papers daleconwp2025-01, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    17. Stephan, Gaëtan & Lecumberry, Julien, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 49-54.
    18. Gaëtan Stephan & Julien Lecumberry, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Post-Print halshs-01238494, HAL.
    19. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    20. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "International comovement of r∗: A case study of the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    22. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  31. Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008. "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2008-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Mar 2011.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2012. "Inflation forecasting in Angola: a fractional approach," CEsA Working Papers 103, CEsA - Centre for African and Development Studies.
    2. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Working Papers 2016-007, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    3. Bel, K. & Paap, R., 2013. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009. "Instrumental variable estimation of a nonlinear Taylor rule," Working Papers 0909, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
    7. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2018. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Greenbook," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 955, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(2), pages 129-138, September.
    9. Bel, Koen & Paap, Richard, 2016. "Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on US inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1306-1316.
    10. Döpke, Jörg & Müller, Karsten & Tegtmeier, Lars, 2018. "The economic value of business cycle forecasts for potential investors – Evidence from Germany," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 445-461.

  32. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2006. "Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage," Working Papers 2003-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen Zeldes, 2013. "Cost shifting and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Joshua D. Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2020. "Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 27251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang, 2004. "Explaining the Evolution of Pension Structure and Job Tenure," NBER Working Papers 10714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2013. "Pension funds and Market Efficiency: A review," Discussion Papers 2013/164, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Vafeas, Nikos & Vlittis, Adamos, 2018. "Independent directors and defined benefit pension plan freezes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 505-518.

Articles

  1. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Pawel Adrjan & Gabriele Ciminelli & Alexandre Judes & Michael Koelle & Cyrille Schwellnus & Tara Sinclair, 2023. "Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 604-608, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Zarate & Mathias Dolls & Steven J. Davis & Nicholas Bloom & Jose Maria Barrero & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "Why Does Working from Home Vary Across Countries and People?," NBER Working Papers 32374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lina Bjerke & Steven Bond-Smith & Philip McCann & Charlotta Mellander, 2024. "Work-from-home, relocation, and shadow effects: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 2024-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    3. Diego Mayorga & Karla Neri Hernández & Jorge Pérez Pérez, 2024. "Housing Price Gradients in Mexico City During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 2024-18, Banco de México.

  3. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021. "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 49-53, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Mamertino, Mariano & Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 51-53.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2017. "A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 101-115, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Morley, James & Panovska, Irina B. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2017. "Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 160-182, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Proietti, 2021. "Predictability, real time estimation, and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 433-454, April.
    2. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Yves Schueler, 2024. "Filtering economic time series: On the cyclical properties of Hamilton’s regression filter and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.

  12. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2015. "How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 791-815, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.

    Cited by:

    1. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Michael D. Hunter & Haya Fatimah & Marina A. Bornovalova, 2022. "Two Filtering Methods of Forecasting Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Intensive Longitudinal Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 477-505, June.
    3. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.
    4. Thomas L. Hogan, 2022. "The calculus of dissent: Bias and diversity in FOMC projections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 105-135, April.

  16. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013. "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 396-422, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010. "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010. "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2289-2297.

    Cited by:

    1. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    3. Thitithep Sitthiyot & Kanyarat Holasut, 2024. "A simple method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables," Papers 2402.01142, arXiv.org.
    4. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
    5. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(1), pages 31-38.
    7. Casarin, Roberto & Costantini, Mauro & Paradiso, Antonio, 2021. "On the role of dependence in sticky price and sticky information Phillips curve: Modelling and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
    9. IIZUKA Nobuo, 2013. "Predicting Business Cycle Phases by Professional Forecasters－ Are They Useful ?," ESRI Discussion paper series 305, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Predicting gasoline prices using Michigan survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-32.
    12. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, revised Jul 2008.
    13. Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Forecasting the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality, and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 130-139.
    14. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
    15. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
    16. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers 201463, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "A directional evaluation of corporate executives' exchange rate forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 95-101, January.
    18. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    19. Hamid Baghestani & Paul Williams, 2017. "Does customer satisfaction have directional predictability for U.S. discretionary spending?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(54), pages 5504-5511, November.
    20. Baghestani, Hamid, 2021. "Predicting growth in US durables spending using consumer durables-buying attitudes," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 327-336.
    21. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2015. "On the accuracy of private forecasts of inflation and growth in Brazil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 370-381, April.
    22. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    23. Hamid Baghestani, 2011. "A directional analysis of Federal Reserve predictions of growth in unit labor costs and productivity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 303-311.
    24. Hamid Baghestani, 2016. "Interest rate movements and US consumers’ inflation forecast errors: is there a link?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 623-630, July.
    25. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2017. "Do analysts' forecasts of term spread differential help predict directional change in exchange rates?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 62-69.
    26. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    27. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    28. Hamid Baghestani & Mohammad Arzaghi & Ilker Kaya, 2015. "On the accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts of interest rates and country risk premiums," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 113-122, January.
    29. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    30. Hamid Baghestani & Ilker Kaya & Samer Kherfi, 2013. "Do changes in consumers' home buying attitudes predict directional change in home sales?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 411-415, March.
    31. Y. Tsuchiya, 2014. "Are consumer sentiments useful in Japan? An application of a new market-timing test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 356-359, March.
    32. Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
    33. Hamid Baghestani, 2014. "On the loss structure of federal reserve forecasts of output growth," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 518-527, July.
    34. Hamid Baghestani & Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul, 2019. "Dynamics between Oil Prices and UAE Effective Exchange Rates: An Empirical Examination," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 16, pages 89-103, May.
    35. Baghestani, Hamid & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2019. "A directional analysis of oil prices and real exchange rates in BRIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 450-456.
    36. Hamid Baghestani & Jorg Bley, 2020. "Do directional predictions of US gasoline prices reveal asymmetries?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(2), pages 348-360, April.
    37. Baghestani, Hamid & Toledo, Hugo, 2019. "Oil prices and real exchange rates in the NAFTA region," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 253-264.
    38. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.
    39. Anusha, "undated". "Evaluating reliability of some symmetric and asymmetric univariate filters," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-030, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    40. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
    41. Baghestani, Hamid & AbuAl-Foul, Bassam M., 2017. "Comparing Federal Reserve, Blue Chip, and time series forecasts of US output growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 47-56.
    42. Hamid Baghestani, 2013. "Evaluating Federal Reserve predictions of growth in consumer spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1637-1646, May.
    43. Hamid Baghestani, 2017. "Do US consumer survey data help beat the random walk in forecasting mortgage rates?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343017-134, January.

  22. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.

    Cited by:

    1. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    3. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
    5. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    6. Juan Urquiza, 2011. "Income Asymmetries and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Documentos de Trabajo 409, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    7. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    8. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    9. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Hartley, Jonathan S., 2021. "Friedman’s plucking model: New international evidence from Maddison Project data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

  23. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Andrew Evans, 2018. "Okun coefficients and participation coefficients by age and gender," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2019. "The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series 2019/08, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series," Papers 2005.05266, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    6. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Arčabić, Vladimir & Panovska, Irina & Tica, Josip, 2024. "Business cycle synchronization and asymmetry in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    10. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Working Papers 15-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    11. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    12. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    13. Anni Huang & Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2019. "The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 530-551, February.
    14. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    15. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    16. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Andrew E. Evans, 2020. "Average labour productivity dynamics over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1833-1863, October.
    18. Carmona, Mónica & Congregado, Emilio & Feria, Julia & Iglesias, Jesús, 2017. "The energy-growth nexus reconsidered: Persistence and causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 342-347.
    19. Roger, Perman & Jean-Philippe, Boussemart & Walter, Briec & Christophe, Tavéra, 2013. "How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-60, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    20. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
    22. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    23. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    24. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    25. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    26. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    27. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    28. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2017. "Understanding the Relationship between Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," MPRA Paper 83475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    30. Mihnea Constantinescu & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "Unemployment or Credit: Who Holds The Potential? Results From a Small-Open Economy," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
    31. Nikita Fokin, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
    32. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    33. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & Parker, Simon C., 2009. "The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 4093, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    34. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
    35. Rodríguez, Alejandro & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws100301, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    36. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    37. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    38. Michael J. Dueker & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang & Martin Sola, 2010. "A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications," Working Papers 2010-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Aug 2022.
    39. Mengheng Li & Irma Hindrayanto, 2018. "Looking for the stars: Estimating the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 51, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    40. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
    41. Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    42. Sadaba, Barbara & Vujić, Sunčica & Maier, Sofia, 2024. "Characterizing the schooling cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    43. Jing Tian & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Denise R. Osborn, 2024. "Multivariate Trend‐Cycle‐Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1260-1289, October.
    44. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2018. "Comparing Measures of Potential Output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4), pages 297-316.
    45. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    46. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    47. Philippe Moës, 2012. "Multivariate models with dual cycles: implications for output gap and potential growth measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 791-818, June.
    48. Atanu Ghoshray, 2018. "How Persistent are Shocks to Energy Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    49. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. T. Berger, 2008. "Estimating Europe s Natural Rates from a forward-looking Phillips curve," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/498, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    51. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    52. Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008. "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2008-04, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    53. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    54. Stephan, Gaëtan & Lecumberry, Julien, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 49-54.
    55. Gaëtan Stephan & Julien Lecumberry, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Post-Print halshs-01238494, HAL.
    56. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    57. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    58. Yves Schueler, 2024. "Filtering economic time series: On the cyclical properties of Hamilton’s regression filter and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    59. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "GDP-Employment Decoupling and the Productivity Puzzle in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 485, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    60. Mardi Dungey & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jing Tian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-cycle decomposition: implications from an exact structural identification," Working Papers 13-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    61. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    62. Cortez, Willy Walter & Islas C., Alejandro, 2013. "An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico's output and unemployment," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    63. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    64. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.

  24. Friedberg Leora & Owyang Michael T & Sinclair Tara M, 2006. "Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-42, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Barnett, William A. & Choi, Ki-Hong & Sinclair, Tara M., 2003. "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-6.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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