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What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors

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  • Siklos, Pierre

    ()

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

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Paper provided by Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis in its series LCERPA Working Papers with number 0098.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2017
Date of revision: 01 Apr 2017
Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0098
Note: LCERPA Working Paper No. 2017-4
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  11. Michael Ehrmann & Jonathan Talmi, 2016. "Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 16-37, Bank of Canada.
  12. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," Sciences Po publications 2016-29, Sciences Po.
  13. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
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  17. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2015. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2015-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  18. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  19. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
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  21. Koichiro Kamada & Jouchi Nakajima & Shusaku Nishiguchi, 2015. "Are Household Inflation Expectations Anchored in Japan?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-8, Bank of Japan.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
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  24. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
  25. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
  26. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
  27. Strohsal, Till & Melnick, Rafi & Nautz, Dieter, 2016. "The time-varying degree of inflation expectations anchoring," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 62-71.
  28. Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2009. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news," Working Paper Series 1088, European Central Bank.
  29. Frieder Mokinski & Xuguang (Simon) Sheng & Jingyun Yang, 2015. "Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 405-426, August.
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  32. John H. Rogers & Bo Sun & Lucas F. Husted, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Uncertainty : The Federal Reserve, January 1985-January 2016," IFDP Notes 2016-04-11-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  33. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 408-433, April.
  34. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
  35. Thomas Maag, 2009. "On the accuracy of the probability method for quantifying beliefs about inflation," KOF Working papers 09-230, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  36. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2016. "Measuring Cross Country Monetary Policy Uncertainty," IFDP Notes 2016-11-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  38. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
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  40. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-588, August.
  41. Strohsal, Till & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-48.
  42. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
  43. Yellen, Janet L., 2015. "Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives : a speech at the "The New Normal Monetary Policy," a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San ," Speech 840, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Ricardo Nunes, 2013. "Do central banks’ forecasts take into account public opinion and views?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. Shusaku Nishiguchi & Jouchi Nakajima & Kei Imakubo, 2014. "Disagreement in households' inflation expectations and its evolution," Bank of Japan Review Series 14-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  47. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  48. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
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