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Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations

Author

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  • Paul Hubert

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

We aim to investigate the simultaneous and interacted effects of central bank qualitative and quantitative communication on private inflation expectations, measured with survey and market-based measures. The effects of ECB inflation projections and Governing Council members' speeches are identified through an instrumental-variables estimation using a principal component analysis to generate relevant instruments. We find that ECB projections have a positive effect on current-year forecasts, and that ECB projections and speeches are substitutes at longer horizons. Moreover, ECB speeches and the ECB rate reinforce the effect of ECB projections when they are consistent, and convey the same signal about inflationary pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubert, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03409181, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03409181
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2016-0024
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03409181
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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