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Are Household Inflation Expectations Anchored in Japan?

Author

Listed:
  • Koichiro Kamada

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Jouchi Nakajima

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Shusaku Nishiguchi

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper investigates household inflation expectations and discusses the central bank's ability to anchor them. We use micro-data from a household survey on inflation expectations and fit a normal inverse Gaussian distribution to the data to remove the distortions included in them. The underlying distribution thus obtained is examined to characterize household inflation expectations, particularly from the term-structure point of view. The analysis indicates that long-term expectations are immune to actual price developments, while short-term expectations are easily affected by actual inflation. The paper also investigates to what extent household inflation expectations have been influenced by the Bank of Japan's policy stance. The analysis shows that the price stability target and the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, introduced by the Bank in 2013, contributed to strengthening the anchor of inflation expectations. Nonetheless, the anchor still needs to be improved so that household expectations are invulnerable to any disturbances in actual inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Koichiro Kamada & Jouchi Nakajima & Shusaku Nishiguchi, 2015. "Are Household Inflation Expectations Anchored in Japan?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp15e08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koichiro Kamada, 2013. "Downward Rigidity in Households' Price Expectations: An Analysis Based on the Bank of Japan's 'Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior'," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-15, Bank of Japan.
    2. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bharat Trehan & Oskar Zorrilla, 2012. "The financial crisis and inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep24.
    5. Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(26), pages 2699-2716, June.
    6. Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2009. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news," Working Paper Series 1088, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    2. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks and Their Competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2017-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.
    6. Gunji, Hiroshi, 2024. "Impact of the Kuroda Bazooka on Japanese households’ borrowing intentions," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2020. "Measuring public inflation perceptions and expectations in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 315-344, July.
    8. Nam, Minho & Go, Minji, 2018. "Nexus between Inflation, Inflation Perceptions and Expectations," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(3), pages 45-68.
    9. Sohei Kaihatsu & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2016. "Firms' Inflation Expectations and Wage-setting Behaviors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    10. James Yetman, 2022. "What's Up with Inflation Expectations?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 136-140, March.
    11. Yusuke Takahashi & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2022. "Households' Perceived Inflation and CPI Inflation: the Case of Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    12. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Rahul Anand & Yaroslav Hul, 2019. "Achieving the Bank of Japan’s Inflation Target," IMF Working Papers 2019/229, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Go Fujii & Shogo Nakano & Kosuke Takatomi, 2025. "Households' Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Formation: The Role of Past Experience and Inflation Regimes," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    14. Tomiyuki Kitamura & Masaki Tanaka, 2019. "Firms' Inflation Expectations under Rational Inattention and Sticky Information: An Analysis with a Small-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    15. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2017. "Measuring the Distributions of Public Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the UK," MPRA Paper 76244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Estrategia de política monetaria e inflación en Japón," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    17. Evelyne Dourille-Feer, 2015. "Can the magic of Abenomics succeed?," Working Papers 2015-24, CEPII research center.
    18. Yuichiro Ito & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2016. "Effects of Inflation and Wage Expectations on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    19. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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