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The financial crisis and inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Bharat Trehan
  • Oskar Zorrilla

Abstract

One measure of a successful monetary policy is its ability to anchor expectations about future inflation rates. Financial crises, such as that of 2008?09, can be considered natural experiments that test this anchoring. The effects of the crisis on inflation expectations were largely temporary in the United States, but longer-lasting in the United Kingdom. That is surprising because the United Kingdom had a formal inflation target during this period. Expectations may have been affected more because inflation stayed above the central bank?s target for extended periods following the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Trehan & Oskar Zorrilla, 2012. "The financial crisis and inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep24.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2012:i:sep24:n:2012-29
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-29.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos R. Barrera Chaupis, 2018. "Expectations and Central Banks' Forecasts: The Experience of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and the United Kingdom, 2004 – 2014," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 578-599, December.
    2. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
    3. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    4. South African Reserve Bank, 2017. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2017/02," Working Papers 7851, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Jan Acedanski & Julia Wlodarczyk, 2016. "Dispersion Of Inflation Expectations In The European Union During The Global Financial Crisis," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 737-749, December.
    6. Koichiro Kamada & Jouchi Nakajima & Shusaku Nishiguchi, 2015. "Are Household Inflation Expectations Anchored in Japan?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-8, Bank of Japan.

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