IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jrp/jrpwrp/2016-007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Fritsch

    () (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Alina Sorgner

    () (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Michael Wyrwich

    () (School of Economics and Business Administration, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena)

  • Evguenii Zazdravnykh

    () (National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Saint-Petersburg)

Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence of entrepreneurship in the region of Kaliningrad between 1925 and 2010. During this time period the area experienced a number of extremely disruptive shocks including; devastation caused by World War II, a nearly complete replacement of the native German population by Soviets, and 45 years under an anti- entrepreneurial socialist economic regime followed by a shock-type transition to a market economy. Nevertheless, we find a surprisingly high level of persistence of industry-specific self-employment rates in the districts of the Kaliningrad region. Our analysis suggests that persistence of entrepreneurship is higher in regions with a history of successful entrepreneurship. That is, in regions where a specific industry was particularly efficient and entrepreneurial activity was especially pronounced.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economic Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2016-007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pubdb.wiwi.uni-jena.de/pdf/wp_2016_007.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:oup:jecgeo:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:157-189. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    3. Stephanie Lo & Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on," BIS Working Papers 482, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio," NBER Working Papers 20423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:taf:recgxx:v:88:y:2012:i:4:p:423-445 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:56:y:2018:i:2:p:745-760 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    8. Glocker, Daniela & Sturm, Daniel, 2014. "War-Time Destruction and the Persistence of Economic Activity," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100282, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    10. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    11. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    14. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    15. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    16. Michael Wyrwich, 2012. "Regional Entrepreneurial Heritage in a Socialist and a Postsocialist Economy," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 88(4), pages 423-445, October.
    17. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    18. Grosfeld, Irena & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2015. "Cultural vs. economic legacies of empires: Evidence from the partition of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-75.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    20. Michal Andrle, 2013. "What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables," IMF Working Papers 13/105, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 396-422, June.
    22. repec:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:655-677. is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Georgios Fotopoulos, 2014. "On the spatial stickiness of UK new firm formation rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 651-679.
    24. Martin Andersson & Sierdjan Koster, 2011. "Sources of persistence in regional start-up rates--evidence from Sweden," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 179-201, January.
    25. Michael Fritsch & Elisabeth Bublitz & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich, 2014. "How much of a socialist legacy? The re-emergence of entrepreneurship in the East German transformation to a market economy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 427-446, August.
    26. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    27. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    28. Petra Gerlach, 2011. "The global output gap: measurement issues and regional disparities," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    29. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    30. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    31. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    32. Obschonka, Martin & Stuetzer, Michael & Gosling, Samuel D. & Rentfrow, Peter J. & Lamb, Michael E. & Potter, Jeff & Audretsch, David B., 2015. "Entrepreneurial Regions: Do Macro-psychological Cultural Characteristics of Regions help solve the “Knowledge Paradox” of Economics?," MPRA Paper 65323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    34. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 13/145, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    37. Irena Grosfeld & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2015. "Cultural vs. economic legacies of empires: Evidence from the partition of Poland," Post-Print halshs-01157572, HAL.
    38. Papell David H. & Prodan Ruxandra, 2012. "The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, October.
    39. Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2014. "The Long Persistence of Regional Levels of Entrepreneurship: Germany, 1925-2005," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 955-973, June.
    40. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    41. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    42. Chang‐Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2014. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 253-266, March.
    43. Jacques R. Artus, 1977. "Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78 (Estimation du potentiel de production relative au secteur manufacturier de huit pays industriels, 1955-78) (Medic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 1-35, March.
    44. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output; Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
    45. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Wyrwich, 2018. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II," Jena Economic Research Papers 2018-002, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. repec:nea:journl:y:2018:i:37:p:145-165 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entrepreneurship; regional culture; persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-
    • P25 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2016-007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Markus Pasche). General contact details of provider: http://www.jenecon.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.