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The global output gap: measurement issues and regional disparities


  • Petra Gerlach


The global output gap seems to be negative but closing. According to structural estimates, the gap is still wide, particularly in the advanced economies. However, these measures may overestimate potential output, eg by not accounting for the fact that certain investments may have turned out to be unproductive. Purely statistical estimates, on the other hand, suggest that the global output gap has already closed in both the advanced and the emerging market economies, but statistical measures are subject to an end-point problem that too often makes them signal a closed gap at the current edge.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Gerlach, 2011. "The global output gap: measurement issues and regional disparities," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1106e

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Eli M Remolona, 2006. "Securitisation in Asia and the Pacific: implications for liquidity and credit risks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & Tokiko Shimizu, 2004. "Purchase of SME-related ABS by the Bank of Japan (Updated): Monetary Policy and SME financing in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-1, Bank of Japan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Carsten A. Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2016. "Wage and Price Dynamics in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1109-1127, August.
    3. Balboa, Marina & López-Espinosa, Germán & Rubia, Antonio, 2013. "Nonlinear dynamics in discretionary accruals: An analysis of bank loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5186-5207.
    4. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical shocks and persistence of economic activity: evidence from a unique natural experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 143/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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