IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v12y2012i3p1-31n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Papell David H.

    (University of Houston)

  • Prodan Ruxandra

    (University of Houston)

Abstract

Do severe recessions associated with financial crises cause permanent reductions in potential GDP? If the economy eventually returns to its trend, does the return take longer than the return following recessions not associated with financial crises? We develop a statistical methodology appropriate for identifying and analyzing slumps, episodes that combine a contraction and an expansion and end when the economy returns to its trend growth rate. We analyze the Great Depression for the United States, severe and milder financial crises for advanced economies, severe financial crises for emerging markets, and postwar recessions for the United States and other advanced economies. The preponderance of evidence for episodes comparable with the current U.S. slump is that, while potential GDP is eventually restored, the slumps last an average of nine years. If this historical pattern holds, the Great Recession that started in 2007:Q4 will not ultimately affect potential GDP, but the Great Slump is not yet half over.

Suggested Citation

  • Papell David H. & Prodan Ruxandra, 2012. "The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:3:p:1-31:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/1935-1690.101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.101
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/1935-1690.101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Murray, Christian J & Nelson, Charles R, 2004. "The Great Depression and Output Persistence: A Reply to Papell and Prodan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 429-432, June.
    4. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    6. Prodan, Ruxandra, 2008. "Potential Pitfalls in Determining Multiple Structural Changes With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 50-65, January.
    7. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
    8. Papell, David H & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2004. "The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 423-427, June.
    9. Lars Jonung & Thomas Hagberg, 2005. "How costly was the crisis of the 1990s? A comparative analysis of the deepest crises in Finland and Sweden over the last 130 years," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 224, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    11. ., 1998. "Econometric Testing," Chapters, in: John B. Davis & D. W. Hands & Uskali Mäki (ed.), The Handbook of Economic Methodology, chapter 26, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bakas, Dimitrios & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2020. "Financial crises and economic recovery: Cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    3. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2019. "Cost-benefit Analysis of Leaning against the Wind," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2014. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A Ten-Year Perspective," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. Boyd, John H. & Heitz, Amanda, 2016. "The social costs and benefits of too-big-to-fail banks: A “bounding” exercise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 251-265.
    6. Ichiro Iwasaki & Mathilde Maurel, 2017. "The Impact of Crisis on Firm Creation and Regeneration in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-01505659, HAL.
    7. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    10. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    11. John Taylor, 2014. "Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A 10-Year Perspective," Discussion Papers 13-026, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Gamze Ozturk Danisman & Amine Tarazi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability," Working Papers hal-03259298, HAL.
    13. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
    14. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1607, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Apr 2016.
    15. Liao, Shushu, 2021. "The effect of credit shocks in the context of labor market frictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
    18. Susanne Maidorn, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between procyclicality and revisions in EC trend TFP estimations?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 59-82, February.
    19. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2017. "The Effect of Recessions on Potential Output Estimates: Size, Timing, and Determinants," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168180, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Kaba, Ibrahima & Szirmai, Adam, 2015. "Structural change and the ability to sustain growth," MERIT Working Papers 2015-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    2. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    3. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
    6. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    8. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
    9. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:3:p:11:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. McMahon, Michael & Malherbe, Frédéric, 2020. "Beyond Pangloss: Financial sector origins of inefficient economic booms," CEPR Discussion Papers 15180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
    12. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537, Decembrie.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    14. Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro, 2014. "Everybody Hurts: Banking Crises and Individual Wellbeing," Working Papers 2014010, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2015. "The synchronization of European credit cycles," Discussion Papers 20/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    18. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Joshua Nielsen, 2023. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Bubbles in an Emerging Country: The Case of India," Working Papers 202305, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2017. "Effects of Financial Crises on Productivity, Capital and Employment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 90-112, February.
    20. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    21. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:3:p:1-31:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.