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How costly was the crisis of the 1990s? A comparative analysis of the deepest crises in Finland and Sweden over the last 130 years

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  • Lars Jonung
  • Thomas Hagberg

Abstract

In the 1990s the world economy was hit by a series of unusually deep crises with far-reaching consequences, the first of which occurred in Finland and Sweden. This paper compares the cost of the crisis of the 1990s with the costs caused by all major crises and depressions since the 1870s in the two Nordic countries. First, it constructs a crisis chronology for Finland and Sweden. Second, it estimates the cost of every major crisis in terms of real income, industrial production and employment foregone. The numerical results demonstrate the severity of the crisis of the 1990s. It is one of the worst crises that have hit the two Nordic countries, on a par in several respects with the crisis of the 1930s, commonly regarded as the greatest crisis in modern history. The crises of the 1990s in Finland and Sweden were as severe as those that hit the world during the exceptionally crisis-ridden interwar period. However, the output losses in both countries during World War I and II remain higher than those of any peacetime crisis, notwithstanding Sweden's neutrality in both wars.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Jonung & Thomas Hagberg, 2005. "How costly was the crisis of the 1990s? A comparative analysis of the deepest crises in Finland and Sweden over the last 130 years," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 224, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0224
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "The Role of the Business Cycle in Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Finland," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 15-27, June.
    2. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented?," Chapters, in: Maurice Obstfeld & Dongchul Cho & Andrew Mason (ed.), Global Economic Crisis, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Papell David H. & Prodan Ruxandra, 2012. "The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, October.
    5. Van den Berg, Gerard & Modin, Bitte, 2013. "Economic Conditions at Birth, Birth Weight, Ability, and the Causal Path to Cardiovascular Mortality," CEPR Discussion Papers 9650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    7. Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro, 2014. "Everybody Hurts: Banking Crises and Individual Wellbeing," Working Papers 2014010, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?," NBER Working Papers 16589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bucci, Alberto & Carbonari, Lorenzo & Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Trovato, Giovanni, 2021. "Economic growth and innovation complexity: An empirical estimation of a Hidden Markov Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 86-99.
    10. Eric Leeper & James Nason, 2014. "Bringing Financial Stability into Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2014-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    11. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Sovereign Debt Risk Premia and Fiscal Policy in Sweden," NBER Working Papers 15810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability," Staff Working Papers 13-27, Bank of Canada.
    13. Lars Jonung & Ludger Schuknecht & Mika Tujula, 2005. "The boom-bust cycle in Finland and Sweden 1984-1995 in an international perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 237, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Eric M. Leeper & James M. Nason, 2014. "Bringing Financial Stability into Monetary Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2014-72, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Lars Jonung & Jaakko Kiander & Pentti Vartia, 2008. "The great financial crisis in Finland and Sweden - The dynamics of boom, bust and recovery, 1985-2000," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 350, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).

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