IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/83474.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Rise of Dollar Credit in Emerging Market Economies and US Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Anni
  • Kishor, N. Kundan

Abstract

This paper examines the hypothesis that the boom in dollar credit in the emerging market economies is associated with excessively low interest rate in the US. For this purpose, we use a multivariate correlated unobserved component model that allows for correlation between shocks to dollar credit, interest rates and dollar index both in the short-run and in the long-run. In addition, it also provides us a quantitative estimate of the permanent and transitory movements in dollar credit in emerging markets, US interest rate and the dollar index. The results from this model do suggest that a temporary decline in interest rate and dollar index below their long-run levels are associated with an increase in dollar credit with a very high degree of negative correlation. The estimate of the cyclical component of the dollar credit in emerging market from our model captures the recent boom and bust in this market and compares favorably to a univariate trend-cycle decomposition benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Anni & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2017. "The Rise of Dollar Credit in Emerging Market Economies and US Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 83474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83474/1/MPRA_paper_83474.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James C. Morley, 2007. "The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 615-638, March.
    2. Black, Fischer, 1995. " Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    3. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    4. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    5. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1367-1387, October.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    7. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, March.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2010. "The immoderate world economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 603-614, June.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    10. Caballero, Julian & Panizza, Ugo & Powell, Andrew, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Ronald McKinnon, 2010. "Rehabilitating the unloved dollar standard," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 1-18, November.
    12. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:4:a:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    14. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    16. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-Interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," ICER Working Papers 02-2014, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    17. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2015. "Are all movements in food and energy prices transitory? Evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 92-106.
    18. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Dollar credit to emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    20. Tano Santos, 2015. "Credit booms: implications for the public and the private sector," BIS Working Papers 481, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Kyuil Chung & Jong-Eun Lee & Elena Loukoianova & Hail Park & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 231-290.
    22. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    23. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2013. "The Unloved Dollar Standard: From Bretton Woods to the Rise of China," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199937004.
    24. Christina Leijonhufvud, 2007. "Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1817-1842, December.
    25. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar Credit; Emerging Market Economies; Monetary Policy Spillover; Trend-Cycle Decomposition; State-Space Model; Kalman Filter;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:83474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.