IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach

We employ a multivariate correlated unobserved components model to investigate the interaction between the permanent and transitory movements in output for two groups of emerging economies: one group in Asia and the other in Latin America. Our empirical framework enables us to assess the relative importance of permanent versus transitory shocks in driving output growth rate correlations across countries, providing an alternative to dynamic factor models for analyzing international co-movements. Our results suggest that GDP in all the emerging economies have highly variable stochastic permanent components with innovations that are negatively correlated with their respective transitory movements. We also find that the Asian countries in our sample share a significant fraction of innovations to output whereas output disturbances are largely idiosyncratic for the Latin American countries. These results lead us to conclude that Asia may be a plausible candidate for a monetary union, whereas Latin American countries do not seem similar enough in terms of macroeconomic fluctuations to gain from sharing a common currency.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/mrg/3911.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series MRG Discussion Paper Series with number 3911.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:39
Contact details of provider: Postal: St. Lucia, Qld. 4072
Phone: +61 7 3365 6570
Fax: +61 7 3365 7299
Web page: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. César Calderón & Rodrigo Fuentes., 2011. "Characterizing the Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 371, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  2. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  4. Claudio H. dos Santos & Anwar Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza, 2003. "Measures of the Real GDP of US Trading Partners: Methodology and Results," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_387, Levy Economics Institute.
  5. Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994. "Measuring World Business Cycles," Working Papers 902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, 08.
  7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  8. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SOE IT)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.