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Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA

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  • Hideaki Hirata
  • Sunghyun Henry Kim
  • M. Ayhan Kose

Abstract

We analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model economy captures some important structural characteristics of the MENA countries and can replicate the main properties of their business cycles. The results suggest that a substantial fraction of cyclical fluctuations in the MENA countries is explained by terms of trade shocks, which account for more than 60 percent of the variation in aggregate output. They also explain the bulk of cyclical fluctuations in aggregate consumption. Domestic productivity shocks explain close to 40 percent of business cycle variation in aggregate output. Government spending shocks and world interest shocks are also important in accounting for the volatility of business cycles in certain macroeconomic variables, but their overall effect on the dynamics of aggregate output appears to be relatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Hideaki Hirata & Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 5-34, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:1:p:5-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sahar Bahmani, 2008. "Stability of the Demand for Money in the Middle East," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 62-83, January.
    2. Le, Ha, 2014. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Vietnam: A comparison with Indonesia and Philippines," MPRA Paper 57010, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2014.
    3. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    5. Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul & Mohamed Soliman, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and LDC Exports: Evidence from the MENA Region," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 4-14, March.
    6. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Do International Capital Flows Worsen Macroeconomic Volatility in Transition Economies?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13.
    7. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul & Mohamed Soliman, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and LDC Exports: Evidence from the MENA Region," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(2), pages 4-14, March.
    9. Sahar Bahmani, 2008. "Stability of the Demand for Money in the Middle East," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 62-83, January.
    10. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2008. "The Capital Markets of the Middle East and North African Region: Situation and Characteristics," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 68-81, September.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bagzibagli, Kemal, 2010. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 44351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2008. "The Capital Markets of the Middle East and North African Region: Situation and Characteristics," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 68-81, September.

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