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Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies

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  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Fuentes, Rodrigo

Abstract

Using the dating algorithm by Harding and Pagan (2002) on a quarterly database for 23 emerging market economies (EMEs) and 12 developed countries over the period 1980.Q1 - 2006.Q2, the authors proceed to characterize and compare the business cycle features of these two groups. They first find that recessions are deeper and more frequent among EMEs (especially, among LAC countries) and that expansions are more sizable and longer (especially, among East Asian countries). After this characterization, this paper explores the linkages between the cost of recessions (as measured by the average annual rate of output loss in the peak-to-trough phase of the cycle) and several country-specific factors. The main findings are: (a) adverse terms of trade shocks raises the cost of recessions in countries with a more open trade regime, deeper financial markets and, surprisingly, a more diversified output structure. (b) U.S. interest rate shocks seem to have a significant impact on the cost of recessions in East Asian countries. (c) Recessions tend to be deeper if they coincide witha sudden stop, but the effect tends to be mitigated in countries with deeper domestic credit markets. (d) Countries with stronger institutions tend to have less costly recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Calderon, Cesar & Fuentes, Rodrigo, 2010. "Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5343, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5343
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    2. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, pages 251-285.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2011. "Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
    4. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Leon du Toit, 2009. "Economic Crises, Stabilisation Policy and Output in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 20/2009, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    7. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Colombiana:Fundamentos Empíricos para la Construcción y Evaluación de un Modelo DSGE," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004602, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 44-63.
    9. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    11. Lathaporn Ratanavararak, 2018. "The Impact of Imperfect Financial Integration and Trade on Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 79, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jan 2018.
    12. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3911, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan, 2014. "Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 200-218.
    16. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2014. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2014(3), pages 1-69, February.
    17. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
      [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]
      ," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank.
    19. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Stylized Facts of the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Piti Disyatat & Chayawadee Chai-anant, 2007. "Challenges to Managing Risk and Volatility in the Emerging Market Context," Working Papers 2007-01, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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