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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

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  • Diego A. Comin
  • Norman Loayza
  • Farooq Pasha
  • Luis Serven

Abstract

We build a two country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger e¤ect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego A. Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2009. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 15428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15428
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    2. Hakon Tretvoll & Fernando Leibovici & David Kohn, 2017. "Trade in Commodities and Emerging Market Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 743, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Volatility Due to Offshoring: Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 3, pages 45-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
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    7. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
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    9. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Martí, 2014. "Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes, and Consequences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.),Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 2, pages 565-622, Elsevier.
    10. Toshihiro Okada, 2018. "International R&D Spillovers, Innovation by Learning from Abroad and Medium-Run Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series 183, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    11. M.Emranul Haque & Paul Middleditch & Shuonan Zhang, 2018. "Financial development and innovation: A DSGE comparison of Chinese and US business cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 244, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    12. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    13. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    14. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2019. "International propagation of shocks: A dynamic factor model using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 929-947.
    15. Neil Foster-McGregor & Johannes Pöschl, 2015. "Offshoring, Inshoring and Labor Market Volatility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 145-163, June.
    16. Fayyaz Hussain & Constance Kabibi Kimuli, 2012. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 13-31.
    17. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Asli Leblebicioglu & Kolver Hernandez, 2012. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Emerging Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Queralto, Albert, 2020. "A model of slow recoveries from financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-25.
    20. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: II – model comparisons, model validation, policy analysis and general discussion," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.),Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 19, pages 441-463, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Albert Queraltó, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Kadish, Peter, 2010. "Are Large Multinational Companies Undervalued? Emerging Markets Perspective," MPRA Paper 24315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. David M. Kemme & Kayhan Koleyni, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Welfare Losses from Foreign Crises: The Impact of the US Financial Crisis on Mexico," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 132-147, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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