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Faraway, so close! International transmission in the medium-term cycle of advanced economies

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  • Correa-López, Mónica
  • de Blas, Beatriz

Abstract

Large US firms, by diffusing embodied technology through trade in intermediates, appear to drive Europe's output over the medium term. We develop a two-country model of endogenous growth in varieties, cross-country firm heterogeneity and trade to match this evidence. A US TFP slowdown generates a pronounced recession in Europe, while a negative investment-specific shock also imparts a protracted recession in the US since GDP and firm productivity stay below trend beyond a decade. Heterogeneous firms, with endogenously changing productivity cut-offs, and the responses of innovators and adopters determine medium-term adjustment, as import switching processes unfold.

Suggested Citation

  • Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2021. "Faraway, so close! International transmission in the medium-term cycle of advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:132:y:2021:i:c:s0022199621000787
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103498
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Medium-term business cycles; International trade; Embodied growth; Heterogeneous firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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