IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hbs/wpaper/10-029.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Diego A. Comin

    (Harvard Business School, Business, Government and the International Economy Unit)

  • Norman Loayza

    (Economics Research, World Bank Group)

  • Farooq Pasha

    (Boston College, Economics)

  • Luis Serven

    (World Bank - Office of the Chief Economist)

Abstract

We build a two country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI flows. The model is able to explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego A. Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2009. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-029, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:10-029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/10-029.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
    2. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    3. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 1997. "1974," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-95, June.
      • Greenwood, J. & Yorukoglu, M., 1996. "1974," RCER Working Papers 429, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    5. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    6. Warner, Andrew M., 1994. "Mexico's investment collapse: debt or oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
    7. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    8. Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Alberto Isgut, 1999. "Fixed Capital Adjustment: Is Latin America Different? Evidence from the Colombian and Mexican Manufacturing Sectors," IMF Working Papers 1999/059, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, May.
    10. R. Gaston Gelos & Alberto Isgut, 2001. "Fixed Capital Adjustment: Is Latin America Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 717-726, November.
    11. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    12. Nancy L. Stokey, 1991. "The Volume and Composition of Trade Between Rich and Poor Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 63-80.
    13. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    15. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    16. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    17. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    18. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    19. Talan B. İşan, 2000. "Financing Constraints and Investment Decline in Mexico," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 24-43, January.
    20. Ariel Pakes & Mark Schankerman, 1984. "The Rate of Obsolescence of Patents, Research Gestation Lags, and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 73-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albert Queraltó, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    3. Correa-López, Mónica & de Blas, Beatriz, 2021. "Faraway, so close! International transmission in the medium-term cycle of advanced economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Horag Choi, 2013. "The Role of Establishment Heterogeneity in the Recovery from Sudden Stops," 2013 Meeting Papers 509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2004. "Putting the brakes on Sudden Stops: the financial frictions - moral hazard tradeoff of asset price guarantees," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    6. Emine Boz & Bora Durdu & Nan Li, 2009. "Labor market search in emerging economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 989, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Antràs, Pol & de Gortari, Alonso & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2017. "Globalization, inequality and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 387-412.
    8. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    9. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2012. "Competing engines of growth: Innovation and standardization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 570-601.3.
    11. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    12. Eduardo Morales & Gloria Sheu & Andrés Zahler, 2014. "Gravity and Extended Gravity: Using Moment Inequalities to Estimate a Model of Export Entry," NBER Working Papers 19916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    14. Jaimovich, Nir, 2008. "Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 610-623, November.
    15. Serdar Kabaca, 2011. "Labor Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1122, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    16. Queralto, Albert, 2020. "A model of slow recoveries from financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-25.
    17. Melitz, Marc J. & Redding, Stephen J., 2014. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-54, Elsevier.
    18. Robert Johnson, 2008. "Trade and Prices with Heterogeneous Firms," 2008 Meeting Papers 244, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Alejandro Riaño, 2010. "The Decision to Export and the Volatility of Sales," Discussion Papers 10/12, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    20. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Farooq Pasha, 2013. "The RBC View of Pakistan: A Declaration of Stylized Facts and Essential Models," SBP Working Paper Series 56, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles in Developing Countries; Co-movement between Developed and Developing economies; Volatility; Extensive Margin of Trade; Product Life Cycle; FDI.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:10-029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HBS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/harbsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.