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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Listed author(s):
  • Diego Comin
  • Norman Loayza
  • Farooq Pasha
  • Luis Serven

We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N ) to developing economies (S ) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S; the cross-correlation of outputs is larger than consumption; and interest rates in S are countercyclical.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2014)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 209-245

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:209-45
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.209
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro
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  1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
  2. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
  3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 1997. "1974," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-95, June.
    • Greenwood, J. & Yorukoglu, M., 1996. "1974," RCER Working Papers 429, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, May.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
  6. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
  7. Iscan, Talan B, 2000. "Financing Constraints and Investment Decline in Mexico," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 24-43, January.
  8. R. Gaston Gelos & Alberto Isgut, 2001. "Fixed Capital Adjustment: Is Latin America Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 717-726, November.
  9. Nancy L. Stokey, 1991. "The Volume and Composition of Trade Between Rich and Poor Countries," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 63-80.
  10. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
  11. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
  12. Warner, Andrew M., 1994. "Mexico's investment collapse: debt or oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
  13. R. G Gelos & Alberto Isgut, 1999. "Fixed Capital Adjustment; Is Latin America Different? Evidence from the Colombian and Mexican Manufacturing Sectors," IMF Working Papers 99/59, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Andrew M. Warner, 1992. "Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1161-1186.
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