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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries

Author

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  • Diego Comin
  • Norman Loayza
  • Farooq Pasha
  • Luis Serven

Abstract

We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed (N ) to developing economies (S ) with a two-country, asymmetric, DSGE model with endogenous development of new technologies in N, and sunk costs of exporting and transferring the production of the intermediate goods to S. Consistent with the data, the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in N and S; shocks to N have a large effect on S; business cycles in N lead over medium term fluctuations in S; the cross-correlation of outputs is larger than consumption; and interest rates in S are countercyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2014. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 209-245, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:209-45
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Queraltó, Albert, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Yurim, 2016. "Financial market integration, exchange rate policy, and the dynamics of business and employment in Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 79-99.
    3. Neil Foster-McGregor & Johannes Pöschl, 2015. "Offshoring, Inshoring and Labor Market Volatility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 145-163, June.
    4. M. Ali Choudhary & Farooq Pasha, 2013. "The RBC View of Pakistan: A Declaration of Stylized Facts and Essential Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0413, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    5. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Huidrom, Raju & Kose, Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2017. "How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    8. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    9. Hakon Tretvoll & Fernando Leibovici & David Kohn, 2017. "Trade in Commodities and Emerging Market Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 743, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Martí, 2014. "Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes, and Consequences," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 2, pages 565-622 Elsevier.
    11. Kadish, Peter, 2010. "Are Large Multinational Companies Undervalued? Emerging Markets Perspective," MPRA Paper 24315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
    13. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813225343_0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    15. Asli Leblebicioglu & Kolver Hernandez, 2012. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Emerging Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Fayyaz Hussain & Constance Kabibi Kimuli, 2012. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 13-31.
    17. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:1:p:132-147 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: II – model comparisons, model validation, policy analysis and general discussion," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 19, pages 441-463 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Volatility Due to Offshoring: Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 3, pages 45-77 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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