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Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries


  • Comin, Diego
  • Loayza, Norman
  • Pasha, Farooq
  • Servén, Luis


Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent effects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output.

Suggested Citation

  • Comin, Diego & Loayza, Norman & Pasha, Farooq & Servén, Luis, 2011. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8574

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Correa-López Mónica & de Blas Beatriz, 2012. "International Transmission of Medium-Term Technology Cycles: Evidence from Spain as a Recipient Country," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-52, November.
    3. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Farooq Pasha, 2013. "The RBC View of Pakistan: A Declaration of Stylized Facts and Essential Models," SBP Working Paper Series 56, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    4. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    5. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Yurim, 2016. "Financial market integration, exchange rate policy, and the dynamics of business and employment in Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 79-99.
    6. Comin, Diego & Mestieri, Martí, 2014. "Technology Diffusion: Measurement, Causes, and Consequences," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 2, pages 565-622 Elsevier.
    7. Paul Levine, 2012. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world: probability models and the design of robust monetary rules," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 70-88, April.
    8. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2017. "How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1710, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    9. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    10. Neil Foster-McGregor & Johannes Pöschl, 2015. "Offshoring, Inshoring and Labor Market Volatility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 145-163, June.
    11. Fayyaz Hussain & Constance Kabibi Kimuli, 2012. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 13-31.
    12. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Hakon Tretvoll & Fernando Leibovici & David Kohn, 2017. "Trade in Commodities and Emerging Market Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 743, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Asli Leblebicioglu & Kolver Hernandez, 2012. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Emerging Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Cristiano Cantore & Vasco J. Gabriel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2013. "The science and art of DSGE modelling: II – model comparisons, model validation, policy analysis and general discussion," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 19, pages 441-463 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Volatility Due to Offshoring: Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 3, pages 45-77 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Queraltó, Albert, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Kadish, Peter, 2010. "Are Large Multinational Companies Undervalued? Emerging Markets Perspective," MPRA Paper 24315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:1:p:132-147 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    business cycles in developing countries; co-movement between developed and developing economies; extensive margin of trade; FDI; product life cycle; volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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