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The RBC View of Pakistan: A Declaration of Stylized Facts and Essential Models

  • M. Ali Choudhary

    (University of Surrey and State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Farooq Pasha

    (State Bank of Pakistan)

In this paper, we establish the nature of short-run fluctuations of the Pakistani economy over the period of 1981-2010. There have been significant changes in the nature of the Pakistani economy over the last few decades. Therefore, we focus our detailed analysis on the last few decades where it seems more appropriate to investigate the nature and causes of business cycles in Pakistan. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of a typical RBC and an augmented RBC model with an exogenous FDI shock in explaining cyclical fluctuations experienced by the Pakistani economy. We find that a simple RBC model performs poorly in terms of matching relevant second- order moments of short run fluctuations as depicted by the data. However, augmented RBC model performs better compared to the simple RBC model.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0413.

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Length: 70 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0413
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  1. Diego A. Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2009. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Harvard Business School Working Papers 10-029, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2010.
  2. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  5. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June.
  7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  10. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  11. M. Ali Choudhary & Saima Mahmood & Sajawal Khan & Waqas Ahmed & Gylfi Zoega, 2013. "Sticky Wages in a Developing Country: Lessons from Structured Interviews in Pakistan," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0213, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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