The Role of Interest Rates and Productivity Shocks in Emerging Market Fluctuations
In this paper we use a quantitative model to explore the potential frictions that distinguish emerging market business cycles from developed small open economies. Following Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) we allow total factor productivity (TFP) to have a stationary and an integrated component. We also allow for shocks to the consumption and investment Euler Equations that operate through the interest rate. These “wedges” represent changes in the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation, which may be due to changes in observed interest rates, unobserved borrowing constraints, or other financial frictions. We estimate the model using data from Mexico and Canada. We show that interest rate shocks orthogonal to domestic TFP fail to explain the behavior of emerging markets. We then allow for interest rates to respond to/co-vary with productivity shocks. We find that emerging market business cycles appear to be driven by large shocks to trend income combined with relatively small transitory shocks tha co-vary with the interest rate.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004.
"Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates, and the current account," Working Papers 04-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 10731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994.
"Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
NBER Working Papers
9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- James A. Schmitz, Jr. & Arilton Teixeira, 2008.
"Privatization's Impact on Private Productivity: The Case of Brazilian Iron Ore,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 745-760, October.
- James A. Schmitz, Jr. & Arilton Teixeira, 2004. "Privatization's impact on private productivity: the case of Brazilian iron ore," Staff Report 337, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.