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On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles


  • Victor Zarnowitz

    (The Conference Board)

  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board)


Business cycles and growth cycles should not be mixed or confused, as is unfortunately often the case in discussions of economic growth. This paper compares various approaches to time series decomposition for the analysis of business cycles and growth cycles as related but separate phenomena. We discuss the phase average trend (PAT) in some detail and compare it with the Hodrick-Prescott and band-pass filter methods of trend estimation. We find that the PAT yields better results for the purposes of identifications and study of growth cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 37-54, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:37-54

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Gupta, Manash Ranjan, 1996. "Delayed formal credit, bribing and the informal credit market in agriculture: A theoretical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 433-449, December.
    2. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Ghosh Dastidar, Krishnendu, 2011. "Vertical linkage between formal and informal credit markets: corruption and credit subsidy policy," MPRA Paper 35563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hoff, Karla & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1998. "Moneylenders and bankers: price-increasing subsidies in a monopolistically competitive market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 485-518, April.
    4. Floro, Maria Sagrario & Ray, Debraj, 1997. "Vertical Links between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 34-56, February.
    5. Kaushik Basu, 2003. "Analytical Development Economics: The Less Developed Economy Revisited," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523442, January.
    6. Gangopadhyay, Shubhashis & Sengupta, Kunal, 1987. "Small Farmers, Moneylenders and Trading Activity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 333-342, June.
    7. Gupta, Manash Ranjan & Chaudhuri, Sarbajit, 1997. "Formal Credit, Corruption and the Informal Credit Market in Agriculture: A Theoretical Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 331-343, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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