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Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis

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  • Yoichi Tsuchiya

    (State University of New York at Buffalo)

Abstract

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is one of the key variables to which economists pay considerable attention for assessing US economic activities, particularly, business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Although the PMI has been used to assess the US economy, there is hardly any attempt to evaluate the directional accuracy of the PMI to predict the direction of change in the index of industrial production (IP) and Gross Domestic Production (GDP). We present evidence that the PMI is a useful predictor of the direction of change in the IP, particularly in the recent decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    2. Ravi Kashyap, 2021. "Behavioural Bias Benefits: Beating Benchmarks By Bundling Bouncy Baskets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4885-4921, September.
    3. Daniel Francois Meyer & Thomas Habanabakize, 2018. "Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 25-32.
    4. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    5. Saffet AKDAĞ & Ali DERAN & Ömer İSKENDEROĞLU, 2020. "Is PMI a Leading Indicator: Case of TurkeyAbstract: In this study, the causal relationships of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) with various financial factors are examined. As a result of the analy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    6. Ruwan Jayathilaka & Rishani Rathnayake & Bhakthi Jayathilake & Thanuja Dharmasena & Dananja Bodinayake & Deumi Kathriarachchi, 2023. "Exploring the growth direction: the impact of exchange rate and purchasing managers index on economic growth in Sri Lanka," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2687-2703, June.
    7. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper 50929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. SAHIN, Emrah & GUNGOR, Selim & KARACA, Suleyman Serdar, 2020. "Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Purchasing Managers Index And Bist Industrial Index Under Structural Breaks," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(3), pages 6-22, September.
    9. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
    10. Ravi Kashyap, 2021. "Behavioral Bias Benefits: Beating Benchmarks By Bundling Bouncy Baskets," Papers 2109.03740, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    directional analysis; forecast evaluation; forecast accuracy; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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