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An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India

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  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar
  • George, Asish Thomas

Abstract

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been increasingly used by various central banks for assessing the direction and strength of economic activity. One of the sub-indices or component level information provided by PMI is that of industrial input and output prices trends as surveyed by firms’ purchasing managers. In this context, the paper tries to examine whether these PMI manufacturer’s price diffusion indices serve as a useful indicator for understanding changes in WPI in India. The analysis was carried out using both OLS estimates and ARDL approach to cointegration for the period April 2005 to October 2012. It is found that both the PMI price indices are good indicators and have significant predictive power of the changes in WPI–All commodities and WPI–Non-food manufactured products.

Suggested Citation

  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper 50929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50929
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50929/1/MPRA_paper_50929.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
    2. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
    3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2009. "Forecasting US inflation by Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 131-144.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Khundrakpam, Jeevan K. & Ranjan, Rajiv, 2010. "Saving-Investment Nexus and International Capital Mobility in India: Revisiting Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 49-66.
    8. Kumar Khundrakpam, Jeevan & Pattanaik, Sitikantha, 2010. "Fiscal Stimulus and Potential Inflationary Risks: An Empirical Assessment of Fiscal Deficit and Inflation Relationship in India," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 703-721.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PMI; WPI; ARDL; price; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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