Trend-Cycle Decomposition: Implications from an Exact Structural Identification
A well-documented property of the Beveridge-Nelson trend-cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where trend shocks enter the cycle, or cycle shocks enter the trend and that identification restrictions are necessary to make this structural distinction. A reduced form unrestricted version such as Morley, Nelson and Zivot (2003) is compatible with either option, but cannot distinguish which is relevant. We discuss economic interpretations and implications using US real GDP data. Une caractéristique bien connue de la décomposition Beveridge-Nelson est la corrélation négative parfaite entre les innovations aux cycles et aux tendances. Nous montrons comment cette corrélation est compatible avec des modèles structurels où les chocs aux tendances entrent par les cycles, ou les chocs aux cycles entrent par les tendances et que des restrictions d'identification sont nécessaires pour faire cette distinction structurelle. Une forme réduite sans restriction comme celle de Morley, Nelson et Zivot (2003) est compatible avec les deux options, mais ne peut pas les distinguer. Nous discutons des interprétations économiques et les implications en utilisant des données réelles du PIB américain.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1130 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, suite 1400, Montréal, Quéc, H3A 2M8|
Phone: (514) 985-4000
Fax: (514) 985-4039
Web page: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009.
"Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
- Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009.
- Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Perron-Wada state space model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00133, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Anderson, Heather M. & Low, Chin Nam & Snyder, Ralph, 2006. "Single source of error state space approach to the Beveridge Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 104-109, April.
- Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 242, Econometric Society.
- Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low & Ralph Snyder, 2005. "Single source of error state space approach to the Beveridge Nelson decomposition," CAMA Working Papers 2005-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
- Morley, James C., 2011. "The Two Interpretations Of The Beveridge–Nelson Decomposition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 419-439, June.
- Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 61-84.
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 529-542, 03.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Sinclair(2009) bivariate state-space model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00151, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.