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Chinese Provincial Macroeconomic Data Revisions

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  • Shirley Hsuan Hsieh

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper examines the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions at the provincial level. Various characteristics of the data revisions are identified. Do provincial data revisions suggest systematic biases in the initial reports? Do these biases differ by macroeconomic variable? How do provincial data revisions compare to national data revisions? We test whether first release and second release estimates can predict the final latest estimates. We conclude that despite second release estimates capturing more information, the statistically significant F-test rejects the Mincer-Zarnowitz joint test of unbiasedness and efficiency for both the first and second releases. Lastly, the direction of the first and second revisions suggests a general trend of underestimation in the provincial initial reports.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirley Hsuan Hsieh, 2013. "Chinese Provincial Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2013-9, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2013-9
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    File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/Hsieh_IIEPWP2013-9.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019. "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.

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