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Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation

  • David F. Hendry

    ()

    (University of Oxford)

Economies are so high dimensional and non-constant that many features of models cannot be derived by prior reasoning, intrinsically involving empirical discovery and requiring theory evaluation. Despite important differences, discovery and evaluation in economics are similar to those of science. Fitting a pre-specified equation limits discovery, but automatic methods can formulate much more general initial models with many possible variables, long lag lengths and non-linearities, allowing for outliers, data contamination, and parameter shifts; then select congruent parsimonious-encompassing models even with more candidate variables than observations, while embedding the theory; finally rigorously evaluate selected models to ascertain their viability.

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Article provided by Frankfurt School Verlag, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in its journal Rationality, Markets and Morals.

Volume (Year): 2 (2011)
Issue (Month): 46 (October)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:rmm:journl:v:2:y:2011:i:46
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  1. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  3. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  4. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2009. "Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 71-89, October.
  5. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521269124 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
  7. Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2006. "Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use of Light in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 139-178.
  8. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
  9. Hendry, David F., 1976. "The structure of simultaneous equations estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 51-88, February.
  10. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2010. "A Low-Dimension Portmanteau Test for Non-linearity," Economics Series Working Papers 471, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  11. Hendry, David F., 1979. "The behaviour of inconsistent instrumental variables estimators in dynamic systems with autocorrelated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-314, February.
  12. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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