Rating Assignments: Lessons from International Banks
This paper estimates ordered logit and probit regression models for bank ratings which also include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings provide support to the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are underpinned by fundamental quantitative financial analyses. Also, there is strong evidence of a country effect. Our model is shown to provide accurate predictions of bank ratings for the period prior to the 2007 – 2008 banking crisis based upon publicly available information. However, our results also suggest that quantitative models are not likely to be able to predict ratings with complete accuracy. Furthermore, we find that both quantitative models and rating agencies are likely to produce highly inaccurate predictions of ratings during periods of financial instability.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
- Kamstra, Mark & Kennedy, Peter, 1998.
"Combining qualitative forecasts using logit,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, March.
- Ederington, Louis H, 1985. "Classification Models and Bond Ratings," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 237-62, November.
- David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
- Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
- David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004.
"Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables,"
2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
- David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2003. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Levich, Richard & Majoni, Giovanni, 2002. "Ratings, rating agencies and the global financial system: Summary and policy implications," MPRA Paper 13249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giuliano Iannotta, 2006. "Testing for Opaqueness in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Bond Credit Ratings," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 287-309, December.
- Kamstra, M. & Kennedy, P. & Suan, T.-K., 1998.
"Combining Bond Rating Forecasts Using Logit,"
dp98-10, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
- Joan Jasiak & D. Feng & C. Gourieroux, 2006.
"The Ordered Qualitative Model For Credit Rating Transitions,"
2006_2, York University, Department of Economics.
- Feng, D. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "The ordered qualitative model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-130, January.
- Stefanescu, Catalina & Tunaru, Radu & Turnbull, Stuart, 2009. "The credit rating process and estimation of transition probabilities: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 216-234, March.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1973. "A Multivariate Analysis of Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, March.
- Altman, Edward I. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Saunders, Anthony, 2002. "Credit ratings and the BIS capital adequacy reform agenda," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 909-921, May.
- Amato, Jeffery D. & Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Are credit ratings procyclical?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2641-2677, November.
- Jackson, John D. & Boyd, James W., 1988. "A statistical approach to modeling the behavior of bond raters," Journal of Behavioral Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 173-193.
- David T. Llewellyn, 2008. "The Northern Rock crisis: a multi-dimensional problem waiting to happen," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 35-58, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.