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Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles

Author

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  • Hang Luo

    (Xihua University)

  • Linfeng Chen

    (Moody’s Affiliate – CCXI)

Abstract

Excessive borrowing of local governments in China sparked concerns that the debt may threaten the financial stability of the economy and ultimately cause economic collapse. It becomes critically important to understand the credit rating of China’s local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds and the association between the yields, credit ratings, and bond characteristics under this circumstance. We use a complete pooled data set of 771 LGFV bond issues from 1999 to 2011 and OLS and two-stage-least-squares regressions to examine how credit ratings might affect LGFV bond yields and an ordered probit model to study the determinants of credit ratings. The main findings are: (1) bond characteristic variables, such as duration and guarantee, matter in determining yields though credit rating plays a major role in determining yields of LGFV bond issues; (2) bond issue size and bond type are the main determinants of LGFV bond credit ratings, while the bond issuer characteristics have little explanatory power; (3) at least in Eastern China, smaller credit rating agency tend to give better ratings after controlling for bond issuer and issue characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang Luo & Linfeng Chen, 2019. "Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 737-758, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:52:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-018-0724-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-018-0724-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Wang & Zhi Chen & Ionut Florescu, 2021. "A Sparsity Algorithm with Applications to Corporate Credit Rating," Papers 2107.10306, arXiv.org.
    2. Yu-Li Huang & Chung-Hua Shen & Kun-Li Lin, 2022. "Did the rating standard for banks change after the crisis?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1617-1663, May.
    3. Wang, Dan & Chen, Zhi & Florescu, Ionuţ & Wen, Bingyang, 2023. "A sparsity algorithm for finding optimal counterfactual explanations: Application to corporate credit rating," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen, 2020. "The roles of rating outlooks: the predictor of creditworthiness and the monitor of recovery efforts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1063-1091, October.
    5. Zhang, Man & Brookins, Oscar T. & Huang, Xiaowei, 2022. "The crowding out effect of central versus local government debt: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Eliza Xia Zhang, 2020. "The impact of cash flow management versus accruals management on credit rating performance and usage," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1193, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield; Credit rating; Local government financing vehicle (LGFV); China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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