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Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt

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  • Andrew B. Martinez

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper compares annual one-step-ahead forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) of the United States‟ gross federal debt from 1984 to 2010. While comparisons of these agencies‟ forecasts have been done before, they have not focused on the debt. The paper finds that both agencies do a good job forecasting the debt except during recessions. Each agency‟s forecast lacks something that the other accounts for and an average of both out performs either individually. However, the Analysis of the President‟s Budget (APB), which includes information from both agencies, performs best.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-002
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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2011-002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
    2. Martinez, Andrew B., 2015. "How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 312-324.
    3. Gamber, Edward N. & Liebner, Jeffrey P., 2017. "Comment on “How Biased are US Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 560-562.
    4. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.

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