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Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001

  • SANTOS, Carlos

    ()

  • OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta

In this paper, we build a model for the yield curve in Germany, from 1975 to 2001, and use it to test the Lucas Critique. We provide a first application of the new general-to-specific automatic model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets to term structure

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:1_5
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  1. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Papers 2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2005. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 571-595, October.
  4. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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  7. J. David Baldwin & Ronald L. Oaxaca, 2005. "Editors' Introduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 7-7, May.
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  10. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Peter A.G. VanBergeijk & Jan Marc Berk, . "The Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure," IEW - Working Papers 082, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  13. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0205, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  15. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  16. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  17. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
  18. Hördahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Working Paper Series 0405, European Central Bank.
  19. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-15, May.
  20. Z. Psaradakis & M. Solá, 1993. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0993, Department of Economics - dECON.
  21. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  22. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  23. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827.
  26. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  27. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
  28. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
  29. Stanley, T. D., 2000. "An empirical critique of the Lucas critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-107.
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