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Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001

  • SANTOS, Carlos

    ()

  • OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta

In this paper, we build a model for the yield curve in Germany, from 1975 to 2001, and use it to test the Lucas Critique. We provide a first application of the new general-to-specific automatic model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets to term structure

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:1_5
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  1. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  3. Lindé, Jesper, 1999. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 311, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 09 Mar 1999.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
  6. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  7. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  8. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
  9. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-15, May.
  11. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0205, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
  12. Bernard, Henri J & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1996. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 151-175.
  14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
  15. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  16. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  17. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  18. Peter A.G. VanBergeijk & Jan Marc Berk, . "The Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure," IEW - Working Papers 082, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  19. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
  20. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827.
  21. Stanley, T. D., 2000. "An empirical critique of the Lucas critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-107.
  22. J. David Baldwin & Ronald L. Oaxaca, 2005. "Editors' Introduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 7-7, May.
  23. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  24. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
  25. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
  26. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  27. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  28. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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