Saturation in Autoregressive Models
In this paper, we extend the impulse saturation algorithm to a class of dynamic models. We show that the procedure is still correctly sized for stationary AR(1) processes, independently of the number of splits used for sample partitions. We derive theoretical power when there is an additive outlier in the data, and present simulation evidence showing good empirical rejection frequencies against such an alternative. Extensive Monte Carlo evidence is presented to document that the procedure has good power against a level shift in the last rT% of the sample observations. This result does not depend on the level of serial correlation of the data and does not require the use of a (mis-specified) location-scale model, thus opening the door to an automatic class of break tests that could outperform those of the Bai-Perron type.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 24 (December)
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- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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- Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, December.
- SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
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