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Institutions, arrangements and preferences for inflation stability: Evidence and lessons from a panel data analysis

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  • Krause, Stefan
  • Méndez, Fabio

Abstract

We study how monetary, exchange-rate and other institutional arrangements are associated with policy makers' preferences for inflation stability. We argue that focusing on policy intentions, represented by these preferences, constitutes a better way of evaluating policy behavior, instead of looking at inflation outcomes that may be unavoidable at times. Using a panel of 34 countries over a period of 24 years we find that a high degree of preference for inflation stability is significantly correlated only with central bank independence and membership to the European Economic and Monetary Union for low inflation countries, whereas for high inflation countries only strict inflation targeting and, to some extent, central bank independence, are relevant for inflation stabilizing policies. Finally, we find no robust evidence suggesting that either adopting an exchange rate anchor or employing fiscal policy are associated with an inflation averse behavior.

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  • Krause, Stefan & Méndez, Fabio, 2008. "Institutions, arrangements and preferences for inflation stability: Evidence and lessons from a panel data analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 282-307, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:282-307
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    2. Etienne Farvaque & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Intergenerational Transmission of Inflation Aversion: Theory and Evidence," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2008-71, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    3. Diana Lima & Vasco Gabriel & Ioannis Lazopoulos, 2021. "Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach," Working Papers w202106, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Ichiro Iwasaki & Akira Uegaki, 2017. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Transition Economies: A Comparative Meta-Analysis with Developed and Developing Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 197-235, May.
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    6. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick, 2012. "A simple empirical measure of central banks' conservatism," MPRA Paper 38424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cavoli, Tony & Wilson, John K., 2015. "Corruption, central bank (in)dependence and optimal monetary policy in a simple model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 501-509.
    8. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2008. "Quest for the best: How to measure central bank independence and show its relation with inflation?," Discussion Papers 37, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    9. Metin Ozdemir & Selim Tuzunturk, 2009. "Is price stability enough? Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in developing countries," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 352-372.
    10. Diouf, Ibrahima & Pépin, Dominique, 2017. "Gender and central banking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 193-206.
    11. Etienne Farvaque & Piotr Stanek & Stéphane Vigeant, 2014. "On the Performance of Monetary Policy Committees," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 177-203, May.
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    14. Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Giovanni Piersanti, 2014. "Theory and Practice of Contagion in Monetary Unions: Domino Effects in EMU Mediterranean Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(3), pages 259-267, August.
    15. Andrea Beccarini, 2017. "Verifying time inconsistency of the ECB monetary policy by means of a regime-switching approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 203-227, May.
    16. Louka T. Katseli & Anastasia Theofilakou & Kalliopi-Maria Zekente, 2019. "Central bank independence and inflation preferences: new empirical evidence on the effects on inflation," Working Papers 265, Bank of Greece.
    17. Chortareas, Georgios & Logothetis, Vassileios & Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2016. "The effect of banking supervision on central bank preferences: Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 11-13.
    18. Canarella, Giorgio & Miller, Stephen M., 2017. "Inflation targeting and inflation persistence: New evidence from fractional integration and cointegration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 45-62.
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