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Corruption, central bank (in)dependence and optimal monetary policy in a simple model

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  • Cavoli, Tony
  • Wilson, John K.

Abstract

Using a simple macroeconomic model, this paper examines the interaction between corruption and central bank independence in the construction of an optimal monetary policy rule where the instrument of policy is the real interest rate. As such, we are especially interested in how the policy instrument reacts to key macroeconomic variables in the face of possible corruption (modelled here as tax leakage) and possible dependence by the central bank on the fiscal policy process. We analyse this issue by deriving optimal rules for a strict inflation targeting and a real exchange rate target regime. We find that, firstly, the existence of corruption imposes an inflationary bias on the optimal rule – even when the central bank is independent. We find, furthermore, that a central bank that exhibits some dependence exacerbates this effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavoli, Tony & Wilson, John K., 2015. "Corruption, central bank (in)dependence and optimal monetary policy in a simple model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 501-509.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:3:p:501-509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.03.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bohn, Frank, 2013. "Grand corruption instead of commitment? Reconsidering time-inconsistency of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 478-490.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & Pablo Querubin & James A. Robinson, 2008. "When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 351-429.
    5. Cavoli, Tony, 2008. "The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1011-1021, September.
    6. Krause, Stefan & Méndez, Fabio, 2008. "Institutions, arrangements and preferences for inflation stability: Evidence and lessons from a panel data analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 282-307, March.
    7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoeberichts, Macro M., 2008. "The trade-off between central bank independence and conservatism in a New Keynesian framework," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 742-747, December.
    8. Brumm, Harold J., 2011. "Inflation and central bank independence: Two-way causality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 220-222, June.
    9. Farvaque, Etienne, 2002. "Political determinants of central bank independence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 131-135, September.
    10. Ismihan, Mustafa & Gulcin Ozkan, F., 2004. "Does central bank independence lower inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 305-309, September.
    11. Jain, Arvind K, 2001. " Corruption: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 71-121, February.
    12. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
    13. Brumm, Harold J., 2006. "The effect of central bank independence on inflation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 189-193, February.
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