IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/itaxpf/v21y2014i4p614-644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca Cafiso
  • Roberto Cellini

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to gain insights into the relationship between deficit-reducing policies and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We consider past events of fiscal consolidation in a selected group of EU countries and check what is the associated change of the debt/GDP ratio both from a short- and medium-term perspective. In the analysis, we also differentiate between tax-based and savings-based fiscal consolidations and the pre-Euro and Euro periods. Our results point towards a positive short-term effect, while the medium-term effect turns out to be negative. Savings-based fiscal consolidations result to be less negative on the DGR evolution than tax-based ones. The Euro’s introduction seems not to have altered significantly the relationship studied. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2014. "Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 614-644, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:614-644
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-014-9319-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10797-014-9319-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10797-014-9319-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clinton, Kevin & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Mursula, Susanna, 2011. "Deficit reduction: Short-term pain for long-term gain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 118-139, January.
    2. Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2010. "Major public debt reductions: Lessons from the past, lessons for the future," Working Paper Series 1241, European Central Bank.
    3. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area [Fiscal policy and growth: do financial crises make a difference?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549.
    4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
    6. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2014. "Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 614-644, August.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 41-45, May.
    9. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 912-932, September.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2011/128, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 450, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-110, May.
    14. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Gianluca Cafiso, 2012. "Debt developments and fiscal adjustment in the EU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(1), pages 61-72, January.
    16. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Is fiscal austerity really self‐defeating?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(6), pages 1228-1260, December.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    3. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    4. Richard Jaimes, 2020. "Fiscal adjustments at the local level: evidence from Colombia," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1148-1173, October.
    5. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2022. "Market-Induced Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 259-287, July.
    6. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & João Tovar Jalles & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2017. "Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 484-511, June.
    7. Cellini, Roberto & Prezzavento, Luca C, 2016. "Interest payment on government debt and public spending in Italy: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 78066, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Mar 2017.
    8. Gianluca Cafiso, 2016. "Non-residents’ Holdings, Market Volatility and Public Debt Sustainability. An Analysis with Data for Italy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 484-513, August.
    9. Vitor Castro, 2016. "On the behaviour of the functional components ofgovernment expenditures during fiscal consolidations," NIPE Working Papers 11/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2014. "Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 614-644, August.
    11. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2019. "Sovereign bond markets when auctions take place: Evidence from Italy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 406-430.
    12. Canofari, Paolo & Piergallini, Alessandro & Piersanti, Giovanni, 2020. "The Fallacy Of Fiscal Discipline," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 55-68, January.
    13. Dirk Foremny & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Decentralization and the duration of fiscal consolidation: shifting the burden across layers of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 359-387, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2012. "Evidence on Fiscal Consolidations and the Evolution of Public Debt in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 4027, CESifo.
    2. Alari PaulusBy & Francesco Figari & Holly Sutherland, 2017. "The design of fiscal consolidation measures in the European Union: distributional effects and implications for macro-economic recovery," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 632-654.
    3. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    4. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2012. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 945, OECD Publishing.
    5. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2020. "Does Austerity Pay Off?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 323-338, May.
    8. Eddie Casey & Joe Durkan & David Duffy, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation Strategies: Evidence from the International Experience," Open Access publications 10197/5999, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. Virén, Matti, 2013. "Sensitivity of fiscal-policy effects to policy coordination and business cycle conditions," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2013, Bank of Finland.
    10. Virén, Matti, 2013. "Sensitivity of fiscal-policy effects to policy coordination and business cycle conditions," Research Discussion Papers 11/2013, Bank of Finland.
    11. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    13. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    14. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    15. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2020. "Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919–2008," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19.
    16. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    17. Roel Beetsma & Jacopo Cimadomo & Oana Furtuna & Massimo Giuliodori1, 2015. "The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 439-489.
    18. Ağca, Şenay & Igan, Deniz, 2019. "Fiscal consolidations and the cost of credit," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 84-108.
    19. Jorge Pablo Puig & Martin Ardanaz & Eduardo Cavallo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2021. "Output effects of fiscal consolidations: does spending composition matter?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4507, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    20. Manel Antelo & David Peón, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation and the sustainability of public debt in the GIPSI countries," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 37(103), pages 52-71, Abril.
    21. Andrea Tafuro, 2015. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment: an Analysis of the Aggregate Evidence," Working Papers 2015: 03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidations; Debt/GDP ratio; Europe; H63; E63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:614-644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.