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An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy

Author

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  • Cashin, P.
  • Olekalns, N.

Abstract

India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. This paper asks whether the magnitude of these deficits has involved a violation of India's intertemporal budget constraint. Times series evidence on Central government tax revenues and expenditures are examined for cointegration using procedures that are robust in the presence of structural change. We find no evidence of cointegration, a result that implies a violation of intertemporal solvency and that current fiscal policies are unlikely to be sustainable in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 748, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:748
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    File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-00-01/748.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Panchanan, 2016. "Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Deficit, and Stability in Government Borrowing in India: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 557, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Mendes, Cassandro, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability: a note for Cabo Verde," MPRA Paper 65552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Antra Bhatt & Claudio Sardoni, 2016. "Public Expenditure and Growth: The Indian Case," Working Papers 7/16, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    4. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
    5. Kaur, Balbir & Mukherjee, Atri & Ekka, Anand Prakash, 2017. "Debt Sustainability of States in India: An Assessment," MPRA Paper 81929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2008. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 797-803.
    7. Rath, Deba Prasad & Misra, Biswa Swarup, 2006. "Examining Sustainability of Federal Finances in India: An Application of Non-stationary Panel Methods," MPRA Paper 21894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kannan, R & Singh, Bhupal, 2007. "Debt-deficit dynamics in India and macroeconomic effects: A structural approach," MPRA Paper 16480, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    9. repec:eee:joecag:v:3:y:2014:i:c:p:71-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Mori Kogid & Suriyani Muhamad & Nor Haslina Mohamad Akhir, 2011. "Fiscal Adjustment And Dynamic Economics Performance: The Case Of Malaysia," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, July.
    11. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FISCAL POLICY ; DEBT ; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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