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Debt-deficit dynamics in India and macroeconomic effects: A structural approach

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  • Kannan, R
  • Singh, Bhupal

Abstract

The structural approach adopted in this paper aims to trace out the evolution of public debt and deficits over a medium term horizon and its dynamic interaction with other key macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation, trade gap and output. The policy simulations for India reveal that persistence of high level of fiscal deficits and debt may have adverse impact on interest rate, output, inflation and trade balance in the medium to long run. The passive evolution of fiscal deficits leads to an unstable regime over the medium to long term as debt-GDP ratio rises asymptotically. The findings of the paper imply that fiscal adjustment with compositional shifts in expenditure to achieve convergence not only leads to acceleration in the investment rate in the economy, it also facilitates monetary management by moderating inflation expectations and contributing to stable interest rate regime. The adjusted converging debt path is consistent with the higher growth trajectory. Such corrections also do not pose the challenge of growth inflation trade-off.

Suggested Citation

  • Kannan, R & Singh, Bhupal, 2007. "Debt-deficit dynamics in India and macroeconomic effects: A structural approach," MPRA Paper 16480, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16480
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dinabandhu Sethi & V. V. Subba Rao & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2020. "Threshold level of fiscal deficit: revisiting FRBMA limit in Indian states," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 233-249, December.
    3. Makun, Keshmeer, 2021. "External debt and economic growth in Pacific Island countries: A linear and nonlinear analysis of Fiji Islands," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    4. Lim Chia Yien & Hussin Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2017. "Granger Causality Analysis between Inflation, Debt and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 189-196, January.
    5. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 121-142, December.
    7. Boukraine, Wissem, 2020. "Asymmetric behavior of exchange rate in Tunisia: a nonlinear approach," MPRA Paper 102037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2016. "Is Public Debt a Burden for India?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(2), pages 184-201, June.
    9. Dinabandhu Sethi & V. V. Subba Rao & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 0. "Threshold level of fiscal deficit: revisiting FRBMA limit in Indian states," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 0, pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Fiscal deficit; Prices; Interest rates.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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