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Fiscal Deficit, Capital Formation, and Crowding Out : Evidence from India

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  • Lekha S. Chakraborty

Abstract

Theoretical literature identifies two variants of crowding out in an economy–real and financial. The real (direct) crowding out occurs when the increase in public investment displaces private capital formation broadly on a dollar-for-dollar basis, irrespective of the mode of financing the fiscal deficit. The financial crowding out is the phenomenon of partial loss of private capital formation, due to the increase in the interest rates emanating from the pre-emption of real and financial resources by the government through bond-financing of fiscal deficit. The paper analysed the real and financial crowding out in India during 1970-71 to 2002-03. Using asymmetric vector autoregressive model, the paper finds no real crowding out between public (in particular, infrastructure) and private investment; rather complementarity is observed between the two. The dynamics of financial crowding out is captured through the dual transmission mechanism via real rate of interest; that is, whether private capital formation is interest rate sensitive and in turn whether the rise in real rate of interest is induced by fiscal deficit. The study found empirical evidence for the former, but not the latter, reinforcing no financial crowding out in India. [NIPFP WP 43]

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  • Lekha S. Chakraborty, 2007. "Fiscal Deficit, Capital Formation, and Crowding Out : Evidence from India," Working Papers id:837, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:837
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    Cited by:

    1. Syed Ammad & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic Effects of Energy Sector Public Investment on Sectoral Economic Growth: Experience from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 403-421.
    2. Przekota Grzegorz & Lisowska Agnieszka, 2016. "The Reaction of Private Spending and Market Interest Rates to the Changes in Public Spending," Foundations of Management, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 203-210, January.
    3. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2016. "Does Fiscal Deficit Crowd Out Private Corporate Sector Investment In India?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1201-1224, November.
    4. Chakraborty, Lekha, 2012. "Determination of Interest Rate in India: Empirical Evidence on Fiscal Deficit-Interest Links and Financial Crowding Out," Working Papers 12/110, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2009. "Crowding Out Effect of Public Borrowing: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Anirudha Barik & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2019. "New evidence on the relationship between public and private investment in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1989-2001.
    7. Nusrat Akber & Megha Gupta & Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, 2020. "The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 167-189, December.
    8. Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
    9. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2011. "Public and Private Investment in Saudi Economy: Evidence from Weak Exogeneity and Bound Cointegration Tests," MPRA Paper 56537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan, 2010. "الارتباط الحركي بين الاستثمار في مؤسسات القطاع الحكومي والاستثمار الخاص عبر نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي: حالة الاقتصاد السعودي [The Dynamic Relationship between the Investment in Public and Privat," MPRA Paper 54398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Honey Karun & Hrishikesh Vinod & Chakraborty, Lekha S., 2020. "Did public investment crowd out private investment in India?," Working Papers 20/312, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Ebi, Bassey Okon & Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Oil Price Transmission, Deficit Financing and Capital Formation," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 123-133.
    13. Dr. Sanjeev Kumar, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Economic Growth in India: An Economic Analysis," Journal of Commerce and Trade, Society for Advanced Management Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 67-71, Octobor.
    14. Jagannath Mallick, 2019. "The effects of government investment shocks on private investment: Empirical evidence from the developing economy," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 291-316, December.
    15. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Taufeeq Ajaz, 2020. "The Public–Private Investment Nexus In India: Evidence From A Policy Simulation Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(224), pages 101-128, January –.
    16. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "Investment Slowdown in India: Role of Fiscal-Monetary policy and Economic Uncertainty," IEG Working Papers 439, Institute of Economic Growth.
    17. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2016. "Does Fiscal Deficit Affect Interest Rate in India? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 5(2), pages 87-103, December.
    18. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Fiscal policy and macroeconomic effects: structural macroeconometric model and simulation analysis," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(1), pages 81-105, June.
    19. Jagadish Prasad Sahu & Sitakanta Panda, 2012. "Is private investment being crowded out in India? Some fresh evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1125-1132.
    20. Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2014. "Monetary Seigniorage in an Emerging Economy: Is there a scope for "free lunch" in financing public investment?," MPRA Paper 67497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    21. Asamoah, Lawrence Adu, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Lending Rate Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 80209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Chakraborty, Lekha S, 2014. "Macroeconomics of “NaMo” Budget 2014 in India," MPRA Paper 67045, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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