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Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession

Author

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  • Pankaj SINHA
  • Sushant GUPTA
  • Nakul RANDEV

Abstract

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post-recession by analysing various macro-economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modelling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rates will not change much during the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:6:y:2011:i:1(15)_spring2011:p:129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chakraborty, Lekha S., 2006. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and crowding out: Evidence from India," Working Papers 06/43, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Daga, Ugam Raj & Das, Rituparna & Maheshwari, Bhishma, 2004. "Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP," MPRA Paper 22830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. D Subbarao, 2008. "The Global Financial Turmoil and Challenges for the Indian Economy," Working Papers id:1808, eSocialSciences.
    4. Rakesh Mohan, 2008. "The Growth Record of the Indian Economy, 1950-2008: A Story of Sustained Savings and Investment," Working Papers id:1388, eSocialSciences.
    5. Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Miankhel, Adil & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 22763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tony Cavoli, 2006. "The Extent of Exchange Rate Flexibility in India: Basket Pegger or Closet US Dollar Pegger?," Working Papers id:424, eSocialSciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Poghosyan, 2015. "Alternative models for forecasting the key macroeconomic variables in Armenia (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 13, pages 25-39, May.
    2. Cindrella Shah & Nilesh Ghonasgi, 2016. "Determinants and Forecast of Price Level in India: a VAR Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 57-86, June.
    3. Somesh Kumar Mathur & Surendra Babu, 2014. "Modelling & Forecasting of Re/$ Exchange rate – An empirical analysis," 2nd International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-Economic Development 7741, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; Box-Jenkins; Indian economy; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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