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Política Fiscal Através Do Ciclo E Operação Dos Estabilizadores Fiscais

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  • Fabiana Rocha

Abstract

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a relação entre ciclo econômico e finanças públicas no Brasil. Dado que no período recente o objetivo principal da política fiscal brasileira foi satisfazer a meta de superávit primário de 4,25% do PIB acordada com o Fundo Monetário Internacional procura-se avaliar, ainda, os impactos da adoção desta meta sobre a operação plena e efetiva dos estabilizadores automáticos. Encontra-se evidência de que não houve uma tentativa deliberada e sistemática por parte das autoridades fiscais de estabilizar a economia através do ciclo usando políticas discricionárias. A política fiscal, contudo, tornou-se menos pró-cíclica depois da adoção da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. Na média o comportamento fiscal tem sido consistente com um superávit de 4,25% do PIB desde 1999, usando-se uma regra fiscal de Taylor. A frequência de violações no limite do superávit diminui com o nível de superávit estrutural, sendo exigido um superávit estrutural elevado para manter o risco de um superávit menor do que a meta a um nível baixo.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Fabiana Rocha, 2007. "Política Fiscal Através Do Ciclo E Operação Dos Estabilizadores Fiscais," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 011, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2007:011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Adriana Arreaza & Bent E. Sgrensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 59-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
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    8. Fabrizio BALASSONE & Maura FRANCESE, "undated". "Cyclical Asymmetry in Fiscal Policy, Debt Accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," EcoMod2004 330600014, EcoMod.
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    10. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
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    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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