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An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework

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  • Creel, Jérôme
  • Hubert, Paul
  • Saraceno, Francesco

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on EMU fiscal governance. We simulate a small-scale macroeconomic model with forward-looking agents, augmented with a public finance block. We account for positive (output stabilization) and negative (via risk premia) effects of debt and deficit. We compare the working of the “fiscal compact” with the Maastricht 3% deficit limit (status quo), and a public investment rule. We evaluate their performance in terms of output and inflation during fiscal consolidation, and following demand and supply shocks at the steady state. All rules guarantee long run sustainability. The investment rule robustly displays the lowest output loss, followed by the status quo. The “fiscal compact” rule appears to be the most recessionary and deflationary.

Suggested Citation

  • Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1567-1580
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.04.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Is There an Alternative Strategy for Reducing Public Debt by 2032?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 39-57, Februar.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2014. "French Public Finances at Risk?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, Februar.
    3. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim Truger &, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/55823teuik9, Sciences Po.
    4. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2014. "French Public Finances at Risk?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 1-19, Februar.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p5488g8pn is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim Truger &, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/55823teuik9, Sciences Po.
    7. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim Truger &, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery: iAGS 2017," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/55823teuik9, Sciences Po.
    8. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
    9. Xavier Timbeau & Signe Dahl & Georg Feigl & Xavier Timbeau & Xavier Timbeau & Andrew Watt, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery. Independent Annual Growth Survey (iAGS) 2017," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 164, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    10. S. Menguy, 2014. "Which is the optimal fiscal rule in a monetary union? Targeting the structural, the global budgetary deficit, or the public debt?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    11. Reicher, Claire A., 2014. "Fiscal targeting rules and macroeconomic stability under distortionary taxation," Kiel Working Papers 1968, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal rules; Golden rule; Fiscal consolidation; EMU economic governance; Fiscal compact;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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