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The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment

  • Creel, Jérôme

    ()

    (OFCE & ESCP Europe)

  • Hubert, Paul

    ()

    (OFCE)

  • Saraceno, Francesco

    ()

    (OFCE)

Faced with the global financial crisis and an increasingly worrisome sovereign-debt crisis, the Eurozone countries are rethinking their fiscal governance. This paper discusses the different reforms and subsequent fiscal rules which have emerged since 2011. It assesses the impact of fiscal rules on the output gap and inflation rate of three representative countries of the Eurozone. By means of a counterfactual, the rules based upon their macroeconomic outcomes are ranked. The new debt reduction rule would certainly lead to lower debt levels, hence to larger fiscal margins for maneuver in the future but, in steep contrast with the golden rule of public finance, it would be very costly to implement as the requirement to enforce a substantial consolidation in the short run would be considerably higher than that of a golden rule and would worsen the output gap and inflation rate. The cap on the cyclically adjusted deficit also leads to unfavorable outcomes whereas the Maastricht status quo, limiting overall public deficit, would be a “second best” behind the golden rule of public finance.

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Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 537-563

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0585
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  1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," NBER Working Papers 16479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, 09.
  4. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2012. "An assessment of stability and growth pact reform proposals in a small-scale macro framework," Sciences Po publications 2012-04, Sciences Po.
  5. G�nter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & Ren� Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lind� & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
  6. Rubinstein, Ariel & Safra, Zvi & Thomson, William, 1992. "On the Interpretation of the Nash Bargaining Solution and Its Extension to Non-expected Utility Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1171-86, September.
  7. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
  8. Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 711-730, November.
  9. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2010. "The Crisis, Automatic Stabilisation, and the Stability Pact," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(1), pages 75-103, January.
  10. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
  11. Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact: Reducing or Increasing the Nuisance?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  12. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps : les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  13. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "Fiscal policy is back in France and the United Kingdom!," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 645-667, July.
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