IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle

  • Jérôme Creel
  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane

The economic and financial crisis has given way to Keynesian fiscal policy. To avoid a collapse of economic and financial system, all OECD countries have implemented recovery plans. Even if the uncertainty regarding the recovery is high, time is now, in most countries, for the adoption of fiscal consolidation policies. After reviewing the various evaluations of fiscal multipliers in economic literature, according to the method and instrument used, we make our own assessments. Our contribution is to take into account the economic situation of the country. A positive fiscal impulse will have a different impact depending on the activity that the economy is at the bottom or top of the cycle. In the case of fiscal stimulus on top of the cycle, the inflationary impact gradually cancels positive effects of this policy. Conversely, this same policy led down cycle will be permanently effective: it is not inflationary, lowering the structural unemployment with actual unemployment. JEL Classification codes: C13, C22, E12, E24, E32.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=REOF_116_0061
Download Restriction: free

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce-2011-1-page-61.htm
Download Restriction: free

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 116 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 61-88

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_116_0061
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Discussion Papers 08-030, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  2. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
  3. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, 06.
  4. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, . "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," Borradores de Economia 397, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Post-Print hal-01073260, HAL.
  7. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
  10. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Eric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5% en France ?," Post-Print hal-01017735, HAL.
  14. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
  15. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire? Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1769, Sciences Po.
  16. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(5), pages 1035-1053.
  18. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  19. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  20. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Agustín S. Bénétrix and Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Irish Economy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp281, IIIS.
  22. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a difference in the UK," Sciences Po publications 2007-13, Sciences Po.
  23. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 26-32, 07.
  24. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005.
  25. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
  26. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 755-764.
  28. Elie Girard & Olivier Biau, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 1-23.
  29. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
  30. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
  31. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2010. "Assessing the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Structural Unemployment in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 767, OECD Publishing.
  32. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Renaud Méary & Nicolas Sobczak, 1998. "Le chômage d'équilibre en France. Une évaluation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 921-935.
  33. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_116_0061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.