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EMU in the Early Years: Differences and Credibility

  • Buti, Marco
  • Sapir, André

The main issue in the early years of EMU is one of credibility. On one hand, high exposure to asymmetric shocks and low adaptability (be it in terms of stabilization or adjustment) to both symmetric and asymmetric shocks make the early years of EMU potentially problematic. On the other hand, significant economic differences between EMU countries raise questions regarding the objective of price stability. Credibility-enhancing policy choices may, in the short run, conflict with optimal smoothing of shocks, but are essential to ‘ferry’ EMU towards its ‘steady state’. While a number of uncertainties still hang over the new regime, the Paper finds that the experience of EMU so far is heartening. Although economic divergences skewed on the high side made internal monetary misalignments politically less troublesome, the stability-oriented EMU framework fostered broadly appropriate policy behaviour in terms of both efforts to increase adaptability to shocks and of actual response to observed shocks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2832.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2832
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  1. Jacques Mélitz & Frédéric Zumer, 1999. "Interregional and International Risk Sharing and Lessons for EMU," Sciences Po publications n°2154, Sciences Po.
  2. Gilles Saint Paul & Samuel Bentolila, 2000. "Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?," Economics Working Papers 449, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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  5. Paul Grauwe, 1996. "The economics of convergence: Towards monetary union in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 1-27, March.
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  7. Calmfors, Lars, 1998. "Macroeconomic Policy, Wage Setting and Employment - What Difference Does the EMU Make?," Seminar Papers 657, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," NBER Working Papers 7161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sorensen, B-E & Yosha, O, 1996. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Papers 40-96, Tel Aviv.
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  13. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. repec:dgr:kubcen:1998116 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
  16. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
  18. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "Close to Balance or in Surplus. A Policy Maker’s Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 28, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  19. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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  22. Soskice, David & Iversen, Torben, 1998. "Multiple Wage-Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 110-24, Autumn.
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