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Political cycles, fiscal deficits and output spillovers in Europe

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  • André Sapir
  • Khalid Sekkat

Abstract

This paper investigates whether national elections in Europe generate political cycles in other European countries, and, if so, whether these spillover effects are likely to survive inside EMU. The paper first tests whether elections in Germany affect macroeconomic outcomes in other European countries and then investigates the impact of elections on budget deficits. The results indicate that German politics significantly impacts macroeconomic variables in other European countries, and also that politics significantly affects the behaviour of European budgetary policy. The prospect of elections tends to increase public deficits in recessions, whereas left-wing governments tend to be more deficit-prone than right-wing governments regardless of the state of the economy. Moreover, the existence of political cycles spillovers among European countries suggest that there may be a need for electoral coordination. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
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  • André Sapir & Khalid Sekkat, 2002. "Political cycles, fiscal deficits and output spillovers in Europe," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7346, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/7346
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    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:71:y:1977:i:04:p:1467-1487_26 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
    3. In-Koo Cho & David M. Kreps, 1987. "Signaling Games and Stable Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 179-221.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
    5. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
    6. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    7. Lohmann, Susanne, 1993. "Electoral cycles and international policy cooperation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1373-1391, October.
    8. Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    11. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Carlos Martinez-Mongay & Khalid Sekkat, 2005. "Progressive Taxation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and efficiency in Europe," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 233, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. MARTINEZ-MONGAY Carlos & SEKKAT Khalid, "undated". "The Tradeoff between Efficiency and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Europe," EcoMod2003 330700095, EcoMod.
    4. Marco Buti & André Sapir, 2002. "EMU in the Early Years: Differences and Credibility," Chapters,in: EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Tansey, Michael & Raju, Sudhakar & Stellern, Michael, 2005. "Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1097-1109, December.
    6. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2006. "Politics, political competition and the political budget cycle in Canada, 1870 - 2000: a search across alternative fiscal instruments," Carleton Economic Papers 06-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    7. Antoni Castells & Alejandro Esteller & Maite Vilalta, 2004. "Full Characterisation of the Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustment: Evidence from Spanish Municipalities," Working Papers 2004/3, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    8. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    9. repec:hal:journl:hal-01291401 is not listed on IDEAS

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