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Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China

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  • Liu, Tao-Xiong
  • Liu, Jun

Abstract

We build up a three-period overlapping generation model to explore the effectiveness of fertility policy and the corresponding factors affecting the fertility choices in China. The results show that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between female income and the two-child fertility choice, and a significant positive relationship between male income and the two-child fertility choice, and the relationship between the price of other child care services and the two-child fertility choice is negatively correlated. The analysis of the effectiveness of the current universal two-child policy suggests that there exists a threshold of the fertility policy estimated to be between 1 and 2. Therefore, even if the two-child policy is further relaxed to a three child policy, it will exert little influence on fertility choice. Thus other forms of fertility policy should be combined to improve fertility rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Tao-Xiong & Liu, Jun, 2017. "Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China," MPRA Paper 82934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82934
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    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Zhang, Yan & Li, Baoli, 2023. "The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Yang, Xiaolan & Hong, Xiaoyue & Li, Wenchao, 2023. "“Only children” and entrepreneurship in China: Spillover effects and mechanisms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Yiqing Xing & Clifford Silver Tarimo & Weicun Ren & Liang Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Kuhn, Britta & Neusius, Thomas, 2022. "Will China's three-child policy defuse the demographic time bomb?," wifin Working Paper Series 14/2022, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).
    5. Qiang He & Xin Deng & Chuan Li & Zhongcheng Yan & Yanbin Qi, 2022. "The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Zhou, Jing & Chen, Huashuai, 2023. "Will reducing the burden of extracurricular tutoring raise fertility willingness in China? Five policy suggestions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1132-1147.
    7. repec:tsu:tewpjp:2024-002 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Xinhua Li & Yancun Fan & Sawitri Assanangkornchai & Edward B McNeil, 2019. "Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior to couples' fertility decision-making in Inner Mongolia, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, August.
    9. Lu, Haiyang & Zeng, Keya & Hu, Weiliang, 2025. "Too busy with the “rat race” to have kids? Longitudinal evidence on the impact of peer grit on the fertility of reproductive-age women in China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Feng, Zhenhua & Lien, Jaimie W. & Zheng, Jie, 2020. "Flexible or mandatory retirement? Welfare implications of retirement policies for a population with heterogeneous health conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1032-1055.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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