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The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001

  • Jeon, Yongil

    ()

    (Central Michigan University)

  • Shields, Michael P.

    ()

    (Central Michigan University)

This paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on relationships is found lending support to the Easterlin hypothesis in that the change in relative cohort size is an important explanatory variable to include in studies of human fertility both in the short run and in the long-run for the United States. In addition, our results support the catching-up hypothesis and that the child tax deduction has been an important policy variable influencing births.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3587.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3587
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  8. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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  10. Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, 08.
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