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The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001

Author

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  • Jeon, Yongil

    () (Central Michigan University)

  • Shields, Michael P.

    () (Central Michigan University)

Abstract

This paper tests for the long-term and short-term relationships between fertility and relative cohort size for the United States using the annual time series data between 1913 and 2001. An error correction model, imbedded with the cointegration theory, is coupled with the general impulse response function. Empirical evidence on relationships is found lending support to the Easterlin hypothesis in that the change in relative cohort size is an important explanatory variable to include in studies of human fertility both in the short run and in the long-run for the United States. In addition, our results support the catching-up hypothesis and that the child tax deduction has been an important policy variable influencing births.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3587
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
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    17. Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
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    Cited by:

    1. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Anna Sibilla Francesca DE PAOLI, 2010. "The effect of schooling on fertility, labor market participation and children’s outcomes, evidence from Ecuador," Departmental Working Papers 2010-30, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    catching-up; age structure; relative cohort size; Easterlin hypothesis; child tax deduction;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation

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