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The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach


  • Yongil Jeon


  • Michael P. Shields



The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:18:y:2005:i:1:p:1-13 DOI: 10.1007/s00148-004-0190-5

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ponthiere, Gregory, 2011. "Existence and stability of overconsumption equilibria," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 74-90.
    2. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    3. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell & Elin Charles-Edwards, 2014. "Life-Course Transitions and the Age Profile of Internal Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 213-239, June.
    4. Yongil Jeon & Sang-Young Rhyu & Michael P. Shields, 2007. "Asian Demographic Transition: An Instrumental-Variables Panel Approach," Monash Economics Working Papers 28-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Gholipour, Hassan F. & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2015. "Marriage crisis and housing costs: Empirical evidence from provinces of Iran," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 107-123.
    7. Robert Lucas & Sari Kerr, 2013. "Intergenerational income immobility in Finland: contrasting roles for parental earnings and family income," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1057-1094, July.
    8. Thomas Gries & Rainer Grundmann, 2014. "Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1165-1186, October.
    9. Sander Wagner & Olivier Thévenon, 2017. "The Evolution of Within- and Cross-Country Differences in the Transition to Adulthood: A New Perspective," Working Papers 2017-04, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    10. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Linlan Xiao & Michael Shields, 2014. "Relative Cohort Size and Fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Panel Data Approach," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 135-142, September.

    More about this item


    J1; C23; Cohort; fertility; panel;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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