Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010
This study tests the effect of relative income – younger people's earning potential relative to their aspirations, as approximated by older families' income – on two measures of fertility: the proportion of women with an own child under one year of age, and the proportion of women with at least one own child under eighteen. The results are highly supportive of the Easterlin relative income hypothesis, finding a dominant negative effect of older family income that extends due to postponement effects even into groups 11-15 years out of school. Increases in older family income are found to account for 42% of the decline in the proportion of women with a newborn, and 37% of the decline in the proportion with at least one own child, among women 0-5 years out of school. In addition, the study finds a strong but changing effect of the female wage: positive among women 0-5 years out of school, although slowly declining over time, but negative among the older women with a dominant positive time trend that has produced a positive effect in the last decade. It is hypothesized that the observed pattern of increases in fertility among women with higher levels of education over the last decade has been a function of this emerging positive effect of the female wage, among older more educated women.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brigitte Waldorf & Rachel Franklin, 2002. "Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 549-578.
- Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Sevilla, Jaypee, 2007. "Fertility and relative cohort size," Arbetsrapport 2007:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
- Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, 08.
- Olsen, Randall J, 1994. "Fertility and the Size of the U.S. Labor Force," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 60-100, March.
- Blau, Francine D. & Kahn, Lawrence M., 2006.
"Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2180, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2007. "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980–2000," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 393-438.
- Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn, 2005. "Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980-2000," NBER Working Papers 11230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
- Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October.
- Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
- Robert McNown & Sameer Rajbhandary, 2003. "Time series analysis of fertility and female labor market behavior," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 501-523, 08.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.