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Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition

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  • Diane Macunovich

    (Department of Economics, University of Redlands)

Abstract

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for nearly 200 nations at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this paper demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across nations since 1950--not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 relative to that aged 25 to 59) which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among children and young adults during the demographic transition, appears to act as the mechanism of transmission which determines when the fertility portion of the transition begins. As hypothesized by Richard Easterlin, the increasing proportion of young adults would generate a downward pressure on young men's relative wages, which in turn causes young adults to accept a trade-off between family size and material well-being, setting in motion a "cascade" or "snowball" effect in which total fertility rates tumble as social norms regarding acceptable family sizes begin to change. Thus relative cohort size can be thought of as the mechanism which prevents excessive rates of population change--reducing ferility when previous high rates, in combination with low mortality rates, have caused relative cohort size to increase, and increasing fertility when previous low rates have caused relative cohort size to decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Diane Macunovich, 1999. "Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 8, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    • Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rostow, W. W., 1998. "The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116915, Decembrie.
    2. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    3. Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
    4. Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
    5. William Lavely & Ronald Freedman, 1990. "The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(3), pages 357-367, August.
    6. Macunovich, Diane J., 1998. "Race and relative income/price of time effects on U.S. fertility," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-400.
    7. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, September.
    8. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 2000. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets (A Cross-National Analysis)," NBER Chapters, in: Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries, pages 57-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    10. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, September.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Baby booms and busts: how population growth spurts affect the economy
      by Diane J Macunovich, Professor of Economics at University of Redlands in The Conversation on 2015-09-08 15:11:42

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    2. Yongil Jeon & Sang-Young Rhyu & Michael P. Shields, 2007. "Asian Demographic Transition: An Instrumental-Variables Panel Approach," Monash Economics Working Papers 28-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Joanna N. Lahey & Marianne H. Wanamaker, 2022. "Effects of Restrictive Abortion Legislation on Cohort Mortality Evidence from 19th Century Law Variation," NBER Working Papers 30201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anna Sibilla Francesca DE PAOLI, 2010. "The effect of schooling on fertility, labor market participation and children’s outcomes, evidence from Ecuador," Departmental Working Papers 2010-30, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    5. Omer Yair & Dan Miodownik, 2016. "Youth bulge and civil war: Why a country’s share of young adults explains only non-ethnic wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(1), pages 25-44, February.
    6. Jeon, Yongil & Shields, Michael P., 2008. "The Impact of Relative Cohort Size on U.S. Fertility, 1913-2001," IZA Discussion Papers 3587, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Yiwan Ye & Xiaoling Shu, 2022. "Lonely in a Crowd: Cohort Size and Happiness in the United Kingdom," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 2235-2257, June.
    8. Macunovich, Diane J., 2011. "Re-Visiting the Easterlin Hypothesis: U.S. Fertility 1968-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Cynthia B. Lloyd, 2001. "World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    10. Domingues, Patrick, 2011. "Civil War Exposure And School Enrolment:Evidence From The Mozambican Civil War," NEPS Working Papers 1/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    11. Jona Schellekens & Frans Poppel, 2012. "Marital Fertility Decline in the Netherlands: Child Mortality, Real Wages, and Unemployment, 1860–1939," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 965-988, August.
    12. Al-Jabri, Nasser & Campbell, Neil & Saha, Shrabani & Khan, Safdar, 2022. "The role of youth bulge on political instability: Cross-country evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1053-1074.
    13. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.
    14. Menashe-Oren, A. & Stecklov, G., 2017. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 17 - Population age structure and sex composition in sub-Saharan Africa: a rural-urban perspective," IFAD Research Series 280055, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    15. Ashira Menashe-Oren, 2020. "Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(3), pages 57-98.
    16. Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2010. "The Effect Of House Price On Fertility: Evidence From Hong Kong," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 635-650, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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